2024 年热带气旋季 · 南半球
气旋KIRRILY Kirrily · SH072024
气旋KIRRILY活动于南半球，自 2024-01-17 至 2024-02-05，共 19 天，最大风速 55 节（TS），最低气压 985 百帕。存档中来自 ECMWF、ECMWF ENS、GFS、GEFS 的 158 次预报已与最佳路径比对；48 小时预报中 GFS 最接近，平均偏差 60 公里。
- ATCF 编号
- SH072024
- 海域
- 南半球
- 活动时间
- 2024-01-17 → 2024-02-05 (19 天)
- 最大风速
- 55 kt · 28 m/s · TS
- 最低气压
- 985 hPa
- 存档预报
- 158
- 来源
- ECMWF · ECMWF ENS · GFS · GEFS
预报路径误差（公里）
| 来源 | 24 h | 48 h | 72 h | 120 h |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF | 61 (16) | 106 (10) | 179 (5) | 115 (1) |
| ECMWF ENS | 47 (16) | 80 (11) | 88 (7) | 199 (1) |
| GFS | 39 (14) | 60 (11) | 95 (7) | 617 (1) |
| GEFS | 48 (14) | 76 (11) | 127 (7) | 588 (1) |
各预报时效上与最佳路径的平均大圆距离，只计系统处于热带或副热带气旋阶段的时次；括号内为样本数。
最佳路径
美国最佳路径（JTWC / NHC，1 分钟平均风速）每 6 小时的位置；等级按萨菲尔–辛普森分级。
| 时间（UTC） | 位置 | 风速（节） | 气压（百帕） | 等级 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-01-18 00Z | 14.5°S 154.5°E | 20 | 1004 | TD |
| 2024-01-18 06Z | 14.4°S 154.9°E | 20 | 1001 | TD |
| 2024-01-18 12Z | 14.2°S 155.4°E | 20 | 998 | TD |
| 2024-01-18 18Z | 13.9°S 156.0°E | 20 | 996 | TD |
| 2024-01-19 00Z | 13.8°S 156.1°E | 20 | 993 | TD |
| 2024-01-19 06Z | 13.8°S 156.2°E | 25 | 990 | TD |
| 2024-01-19 12Z | 13.8°S 156.3°E | 30 | 988 | TD |
| 2024-01-19 18Z | 13.9°S 156.4°E | 25 | 990 | TD |
| 2024-01-20 00Z | 14.4°S 156.1°E | 25 | 991 | TD |
| 2024-01-20 06Z | 14.8°S 155.7°E | 25 | 992 | TD |
| 2024-01-20 12Z | 15.2°S 154.8°E | 25 | 994 | TD |
| 2024-01-20 18Z | 15.2°S 154.6°E | 25 | 995 | TD |
| 2024-01-21 00Z | 15.2°S 154.4°E | 25 | 995 | TD |
| 2024-01-21 06Z | 15.3°S 154.2°E | 25 | 995 | TD |
| 2024-01-21 12Z | 15.4°S 154.0°E | 25 | 995 | TD |
| 2024-01-21 18Z | 15.4°S 153.6°E | 25 | 994 | TD |
| 2024-01-22 00Z | 15.5°S 153.2°E | 25 | 994 | TD |
| 2024-01-22 06Z | 15.9°S 153.2°E | 25 | 994 | TD |
| 2024-01-22 12Z | 16.7°S 154.1°E | 30 | 992 | TD |
| 2024-01-22 18Z | 16.3°S 154.0°E | 30 | 992 | TD |
| 2024-01-23 00Z | 16.4°S 153.5°E | 35 | 989 | TS |
| 2024-01-23 06Z | 16.8°S 153.7°E | 35 | 989 | TS |
| 2024-01-23 12Z | 17.2°S 153.7°E | 35 | 989 | TS |
| 2024-01-23 18Z | 17.4°S 153.1°E | 35 | 989 | TS |
| 2024-01-24 00Z | 17.5°S 152.4°E | 35 | 989 | TS |
| 2024-01-24 06Z | 17.5°S 151.7°E | 40 | 987 | TS |
| 2024-01-24 12Z | 17.6°S 151.1°E | 45 | 986 | TS |
| 2024-01-24 18Z | 17.9°S 150.1°E | 50 | 986 | TS |
| 2024-01-25 00Z | 18.1°S 149.2°E | 50 | 986 | TS |
| 2024-01-25 06Z | 18.6°S 147.7°E | 55 | 985 | TS |
| 2024-01-25 12Z | 19.2°S 146.4°E | 50 | 988 | TS |
| 2024-01-25 18Z | 19.7°S 145.1°E | 35 | 989 | TS |
| 2024-01-26 00Z | 20.4°S 144.6°E | 25 | 990 | TD |
| 2024-01-26 06Z | 21.2°S 144.3°E | 25 | 990 | TD |
| 2024-01-26 12Z | 22.4°S 143.5°E | 25 | 990 | TD |
| 2024-01-26 18Z | 22.4°S 142.0°E | 30 | 989 | TD |
| 2024-01-27 00Z | 22.3°S 141.9°E | 30 | 989 | TD |
| 2024-01-27 06Z | 22.0°S 141.8°E | 25 | 990 | TD |
| 2024-01-27 12Z | 21.7°S 141.9°E | 25 | 990 | TD |
| 2024-01-27 18Z | 21.4°S 142.0°E | 20 | 991 | TD |
| 2024-01-28 00Z | 21.1°S 142.3°E | 20 | 991 | TD |
| 2024-01-28 06Z | 21.5°S 142.3°E | 20 | 991 | TD |
| 2024-01-28 12Z | 21.8°S 141.8°E | 20 | 991 | TD |
| 2024-01-28 18Z | 22.0°S 141.8°E | 20 | 991 | TD |
| 2024-01-29 00Z | 22.1°S 141.7°E | 20 | 991 | TD |
| 2024-01-29 06Z | 22.4°S 141.5°E | 20 | 991 | TD |
| 2024-01-29 12Z | 22.0°S 141.3°E | 20 | 991 | TD |
| 2024-01-29 18Z | 21.6°S 141.1°E | 20 | 991 | TD |
| 2024-01-30 00Z | 21.1°S 140.9°E | 20 | 992 | TD |
| 2024-01-30 06Z | 20.6°S 140.7°E | 15 | 995 | TD |
| 2024-01-30 12Z | 20.0°S 140.5°E | 15 | 995 | TD |
| 2024-01-30 18Z | 19.5°S 140.4°E | 15 | 995 | TD |
| 2024-01-31 00Z | 18.9°S 140.3°E | 15 | 995 | TD |
| 2024-01-31 06Z | 18.4°S 140.1°E | 15 | 995 | TD |
| 2024-01-31 12Z | 17.9°S 139.8°E | 20 | 993 | TD |
| 2024-01-31 18Z | 17.6°S 139.7°E | 25 | 992 | TD |
| 2024-02-01 00Z | 17.3°S 139.5°E | 30 | 990 | TD |
| 2024-02-01 06Z | 17.4°S 139.7°E | 30 | 990 | TD |
| 2024-02-01 12Z | 17.4°S 139.6°E | 35 | 992 | TS |
| 2024-02-01 18Z | 17.4°S 139.5°E | 40 | 993 | TS |
| 2024-02-02 00Z | 17.4°S 139.1°E | 40 | 993 | TS |
| 2024-02-02 06Z | 18.0°S 138.6°E | 30 | 994 | TD |
| 2024-02-02 12Z | 18.4°S 138.4°E | 20 | 995 | TD |
| 2024-02-02 18Z | 18.8°S 138.3°E | 20 | 995 | TD |