2024 年熱帶氣旋季 · 南半球
氣旋KIRRILY Kirrily · SH072024
氣旋KIRRILY活動於南半球，自 2024-01-17 至 2024-02-05，共 19 天，最大風速 55 節（TS），最低氣壓 985 百帕。存檔中來自 ECMWF、ECMWF ENS、GFS、GEFS 的 158 次預報已與最佳路徑比對；48 小時預報中 GFS 最接近，平均偏差 60 公里。
- ATCF 編號
- SH072024
- 海域
- 南半球
- 活動時間
- 2024-01-17 → 2024-02-05 (19 天)
- 最大風速
- 55 kt · 28 m/s · TS
- 最低氣壓
- 985 hPa
- 存檔預報
- 158
- 來源
- ECMWF · ECMWF ENS · GFS · GEFS
預報路徑誤差（公里）
| 來源 | 24 h | 48 h | 72 h | 120 h |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF | 61 (16) | 106 (10) | 179 (5) | 115 (1) |
| ECMWF ENS | 47 (16) | 80 (11) | 88 (7) | 199 (1) |
| GFS | 39 (14) | 60 (11) | 95 (7) | 617 (1) |
| GEFS | 48 (14) | 76 (11) | 127 (7) | 588 (1) |
各預報時效上與最佳路徑的平均大圓距離，只計系統處於熱帶或副熱帶氣旋階段的時次；括號內為樣本數。
最佳路徑
美國最佳路徑（JTWC / NHC，1 分鐘平均風速）每 6 小時的位置；等級按薩菲爾–辛普森分級。
| 時間（UTC） | 位置 | 風速（節） | 氣壓（百帕） | 等級 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-01-18 00Z | 14.5°S 154.5°E | 20 | 1004 | TD |
| 2024-01-18 06Z | 14.4°S 154.9°E | 20 | 1001 | TD |
| 2024-01-18 12Z | 14.2°S 155.4°E | 20 | 998 | TD |
| 2024-01-18 18Z | 13.9°S 156.0°E | 20 | 996 | TD |
| 2024-01-19 00Z | 13.8°S 156.1°E | 20 | 993 | TD |
| 2024-01-19 06Z | 13.8°S 156.2°E | 25 | 990 | TD |
| 2024-01-19 12Z | 13.8°S 156.3°E | 30 | 988 | TD |
| 2024-01-19 18Z | 13.9°S 156.4°E | 25 | 990 | TD |
| 2024-01-20 00Z | 14.4°S 156.1°E | 25 | 991 | TD |
| 2024-01-20 06Z | 14.8°S 155.7°E | 25 | 992 | TD |
| 2024-01-20 12Z | 15.2°S 154.8°E | 25 | 994 | TD |
| 2024-01-20 18Z | 15.2°S 154.6°E | 25 | 995 | TD |
| 2024-01-21 00Z | 15.2°S 154.4°E | 25 | 995 | TD |
| 2024-01-21 06Z | 15.3°S 154.2°E | 25 | 995 | TD |
| 2024-01-21 12Z | 15.4°S 154.0°E | 25 | 995 | TD |
| 2024-01-21 18Z | 15.4°S 153.6°E | 25 | 994 | TD |
| 2024-01-22 00Z | 15.5°S 153.2°E | 25 | 994 | TD |
| 2024-01-22 06Z | 15.9°S 153.2°E | 25 | 994 | TD |
| 2024-01-22 12Z | 16.7°S 154.1°E | 30 | 992 | TD |
| 2024-01-22 18Z | 16.3°S 154.0°E | 30 | 992 | TD |
| 2024-01-23 00Z | 16.4°S 153.5°E | 35 | 989 | TS |
| 2024-01-23 06Z | 16.8°S 153.7°E | 35 | 989 | TS |
| 2024-01-23 12Z | 17.2°S 153.7°E | 35 | 989 | TS |
| 2024-01-23 18Z | 17.4°S 153.1°E | 35 | 989 | TS |
| 2024-01-24 00Z | 17.5°S 152.4°E | 35 | 989 | TS |
| 2024-01-24 06Z | 17.5°S 151.7°E | 40 | 987 | TS |
| 2024-01-24 12Z | 17.6°S 151.1°E | 45 | 986 | TS |
| 2024-01-24 18Z | 17.9°S 150.1°E | 50 | 986 | TS |
| 2024-01-25 00Z | 18.1°S 149.2°E | 50 | 986 | TS |
| 2024-01-25 06Z | 18.6°S 147.7°E | 55 | 985 | TS |
| 2024-01-25 12Z | 19.2°S 146.4°E | 50 | 988 | TS |
| 2024-01-25 18Z | 19.7°S 145.1°E | 35 | 989 | TS |
| 2024-01-26 00Z | 20.4°S 144.6°E | 25 | 990 | TD |
| 2024-01-26 06Z | 21.2°S 144.3°E | 25 | 990 | TD |
| 2024-01-26 12Z | 22.4°S 143.5°E | 25 | 990 | TD |
| 2024-01-26 18Z | 22.4°S 142.0°E | 30 | 989 | TD |
| 2024-01-27 00Z | 22.3°S 141.9°E | 30 | 989 | TD |
| 2024-01-27 06Z | 22.0°S 141.8°E | 25 | 990 | TD |
| 2024-01-27 12Z | 21.7°S 141.9°E | 25 | 990 | TD |
| 2024-01-27 18Z | 21.4°S 142.0°E | 20 | 991 | TD |
| 2024-01-28 00Z | 21.1°S 142.3°E | 20 | 991 | TD |
| 2024-01-28 06Z | 21.5°S 142.3°E | 20 | 991 | TD |
| 2024-01-28 12Z | 21.8°S 141.8°E | 20 | 991 | TD |
| 2024-01-28 18Z | 22.0°S 141.8°E | 20 | 991 | TD |
| 2024-01-29 00Z | 22.1°S 141.7°E | 20 | 991 | TD |
| 2024-01-29 06Z | 22.4°S 141.5°E | 20 | 991 | TD |
| 2024-01-29 12Z | 22.0°S 141.3°E | 20 | 991 | TD |
| 2024-01-29 18Z | 21.6°S 141.1°E | 20 | 991 | TD |
| 2024-01-30 00Z | 21.1°S 140.9°E | 20 | 992 | TD |
| 2024-01-30 06Z | 20.6°S 140.7°E | 15 | 995 | TD |
| 2024-01-30 12Z | 20.0°S 140.5°E | 15 | 995 | TD |
| 2024-01-30 18Z | 19.5°S 140.4°E | 15 | 995 | TD |
| 2024-01-31 00Z | 18.9°S 140.3°E | 15 | 995 | TD |
| 2024-01-31 06Z | 18.4°S 140.1°E | 15 | 995 | TD |
| 2024-01-31 12Z | 17.9°S 139.8°E | 20 | 993 | TD |
| 2024-01-31 18Z | 17.6°S 139.7°E | 25 | 992 | TD |
| 2024-02-01 00Z | 17.3°S 139.5°E | 30 | 990 | TD |
| 2024-02-01 06Z | 17.4°S 139.7°E | 30 | 990 | TD |
| 2024-02-01 12Z | 17.4°S 139.6°E | 35 | 992 | TS |
| 2024-02-01 18Z | 17.4°S 139.5°E | 40 | 993 | TS |
| 2024-02-02 00Z | 17.4°S 139.1°E | 40 | 993 | TS |
| 2024-02-02 06Z | 18.0°S 138.6°E | 30 | 994 | TD |
| 2024-02-02 12Z | 18.4°S 138.4°E | 20 | 995 | TD |
| 2024-02-02 18Z | 18.8°S 138.3°E | 20 | 995 | TD |