2026 年热带气旋季 · 东北太平洋
飓风RACHEL Rachel · EP182026
飓风RACHEL活动于东北太平洋，自 2026-09-25 至 2026-10-11，共 17 天，最大风速 105 节（H3），最低气压 950 百帕。存档中来自 NHC、ECMWF、ECMWF ENS、GFS、GEFS、Google DeepMind 的 390 次预报已与最佳路径比对；48 小时预报中 Google DeepMind 最接近，平均偏差 37 公里。
- ATCF 编号
- EP182026
- 海域
- 东北太平洋
- 活动时间
- 2026-09-25 → 2026-10-11 (17 天)
- 最大风速
- 105 kt · 54 m/s · H3
- 最低气压
- 950 hPa
- 存档预报
- 390
- 来源
- NHC · ECMWF · ECMWF ENS · GFS · GEFS · Google DeepMind
预报路径误差（公里）
| 来源 | 24 h | 48 h | 72 h | 120 h |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NHC | 33 (52) | 46 (48) | 80 (44) | 212 (36) |
| ECMWF | 44 (52) | 86 (48) | 137 (44) | 243 (36) |
| ECMWF ENS | 42 (52) | 73 (48) | 122 (44) | 245 (36) |
| GFS | 48 (51) | 66 (47) | 99 (43) | 226 (35) |
| GEFS | 45 (51) | 68 (47) | 93 (43) | 221 (35) |
| Google DeepMind | 26 (52) | 37 (48) | 68 (44) | 202 (36) |
各预报时效上与最佳路径的平均大圆距离，只计系统处于热带或副热带气旋阶段的时次；括号内为样本数。
最佳路径
美国最佳路径（JTWC / NHC，1 分钟平均风速）每 6 小时的位置；等级按萨菲尔–辛普森分级。
| 时间（UTC） | 位置 | 风速（节） | 气压（百帕） | 等级 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-25 00Z | 9.2°N 92.6°W | 20 | 1010 | TD |
| 2026-09-25 06Z | 10.2°N 93.6°W | 20 | 1010 | TD |
| 2026-09-25 12Z | 11.2°N 94.6°W | 20 | 1010 | TD |
| 2026-09-25 18Z | 11.2°N 95.6°W | 20 | 1009 | TD |
| 2026-09-26 00Z | 11.3°N 96.1°W | 25 | 1008 | TD |
| 2026-09-26 06Z | 11.4°N 96.7°W | 25 | 1008 | TD |
| 2026-09-26 12Z | 11.7°N 97.3°W | 25 | 1008 | TD |
| 2026-09-26 18Z | 11.9°N 97.6°W | 25 | 1008 | TD |
| 2026-09-27 00Z | 12.2°N 97.9°W | 25 | 1008 | TD |
| 2026-09-27 06Z | 12.4°N 98.1°W | 30 | 1008 | TD |
| 2026-09-27 12Z | 12.6°N 98.4°W | 30 | 1006 | TD |
| 2026-09-27 18Z | 12.7°N 98.9°W | 35 | 1005 | TS |
| 2026-09-28 00Z | 12.8°N 99.5°W | 35 | 1003 | TS |
| 2026-09-28 06Z | 13.1°N 100.2°W | 40 | 1001 | TS |
| 2026-09-28 12Z | 13.6°N 100.8°W | 45 | 999 | TS |
| 2026-09-28 18Z | 13.9°N 101.6°W | 45 | 999 | TS |
| 2026-09-29 00Z | 14.2°N 102.7°W | 50 | 997 | TS |
| 2026-09-29 06Z | 14.5°N 103.8°W | 50 | 992 | TS |
| 2026-09-29 12Z | 15.1°N 104.4°W | 55 | 993 | TS |
| 2026-09-29 18Z | 15.8°N 105.4°W | 60 | 989 | TS |
| 2026-09-30 00Z | 16.6°N 106.3°W | 60 | 989 | TS |
| 2026-09-30 06Z | 17.3°N 106.9°W | 70 | 979 | H1 |
| 2026-09-30 12Z | 17.8°N 107.5°W | 75 | 979 | H1 |
| 2026-09-30 18Z | 18.4°N 107.8°W | 75 | 978 | H1 |
| 2026-10-01 00Z | 19.0°N 108.3°W | 75 | 978 | H1 |
| 2026-10-01 06Z | 19.2°N 108.8°W | 80 | 975 | H1 |
| 2026-10-01 12Z | 19.4°N 109.2°W | 90 | 964 | H2 |
| 2026-10-01 18Z | 19.4°N 109.4°W | 100 | 955 | H3 |
| 2026-10-02 00Z | 19.4°N 109.6°W | 105 | 950 | H3 |
| 2026-10-02 06Z | 19.4°N 110.1°W | 105 | 950 | H3 |
| 2026-10-02 12Z | 19.3°N 110.6°W | 95 | 959 | H2 |
| 2026-10-02 18Z | 19.3°N 110.9°W | 90 | 963 | H2 |
| 2026-10-03 00Z | 19.3°N 111.3°W | 90 | 963 | H2 |
| 2026-10-03 06Z | 19.3°N 111.6°W | 85 | 968 | H2 |
| 2026-10-03 12Z | 19.5°N 111.9°W | 75 | 973 | H1 |
| 2026-10-03 18Z | 19.7°N 112.3°W | 70 | 977 | H1 |
| 2026-10-04 00Z | 19.9°N 112.6°W | 75 | 973 | H1 |
| 2026-10-04 06Z | 20.1°N 113.0°W | 80 | 970 | H1 |
| 2026-10-04 12Z | 20.2°N 113.5°W | 90 | 965 | H2 |
| 2026-10-04 18Z | 20.1°N 114.0°W | 90 | 965 | H2 |
| 2026-10-05 00Z | 20.2°N 114.5°W | 85 | 967 | H2 |
| 2026-10-05 06Z | 20.4°N 115.2°W | 80 | 970 | H1 |
| 2026-10-05 12Z | 20.4°N 115.8°W | 75 | 976 | H1 |
| 2026-10-05 18Z | 20.3°N 116.7°W | 80 | 973 | H1 |
| 2026-10-06 00Z | 20.4°N 117.5°W | 80 | 973 | H1 |
| 2026-10-06 06Z | 20.3°N 118.2°W | 80 | 973 | H1 |
| 2026-10-06 12Z | 20.4°N 119.1°W | 75 | 977 | H1 |
| 2026-10-06 18Z | 20.4°N 119.7°W | 70 | 979 | H1 |
| 2026-10-07 00Z | 20.4°N 120.3°W | 70 | 979 | H1 |
| 2026-10-07 06Z | 20.5°N 120.9°W | 70 | 979 | H1 |
| 2026-10-07 12Z | 20.7°N 121.5°W | 70 | 979 | H1 |
| 2026-10-07 18Z | 21.0°N 122.0°W | 70 | 979 | H1 |
| 2026-10-08 00Z | 21.3°N 122.6°W | 65 | 982 | H1 |
| 2026-10-08 06Z | 21.6°N 123.3°W | 60 | 985 | TS |
| 2026-10-08 12Z | 22.0°N 124.0°W | 60 | 985 | TS |
| 2026-10-08 18Z | 22.3°N 124.5°W | 55 | 987 | TS |
| 2026-10-09 00Z | 22.5°N 125.2°W | 50 | 990 | TS |
| 2026-10-09 06Z | 22.5°N 125.1°W | 45 | 994 | TS |
| 2026-10-09 12Z | 22.6°N 124.9°W | 45 | 994 | TS |
| 2026-10-09 18Z | 23.0°N 124.5°W | 40 | 995 | TS |
| 2026-10-10 00Z | 23.3°N 123.6°W | 40 | 995 | TS |
| 2026-10-10 06Z | 23.8°N 122.2°W | 50 | 992 | TS |
| 2026-10-10 12Z | 24.7°N 120.5°W | 50 | 992 | TS |
| 2026-10-10 18Z | 25.8°N 118.9°W | 55 | 989 | TS |
| 2026-10-11 00Z | 28.5°N 117.0°W | 55 | 987 | TS |
| 2026-10-11 06Z | 31.8°N 116.3°W | 50 | 990 | TS |
| 2026-10-11 12Z | 33.9°N 115.4°W | 30 | 994 | TD |