2023 年热带气旋季 · 北大西洋
飓风GERT Gert · AL062023
飓风GERT活动于北大西洋,自 2023-08-19 至 2023-09-04,共 17 天,最大风速 50 节(TS),最低气压 998 百帕。存档中来自 NHC、ECMWF、ECMWF ENS、GFS、GEFS 的 233 次预报已与最佳路径比对;48 小时预报中 ECMWF ENS 最接近,平均偏差 96 公里。
- ATCF 编号
- AL062023
- 海域
- 北大西洋
- 活动时间
- 2023-08-19 → 2023-09-04 (17 天)
- 最大风速
- 50 kt · 26 m/s · TS
- 最低气压
- 998 hPa
- 存档预报
- 233
- 来源
- NHC · ECMWF · ECMWF ENS · GFS · GEFS
预报路径误差(公里)
| 来源 | 24 h | 48 h | 72 h | 120 h |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NHC | 96 (14) | 201 (6) | 220 (1) | — |
| ECMWF | 72 (9) | 112 (5) | 197 (1) | — |
| ECMWF ENS | 65 (8) | 96 (4) | 227 (1) | — |
| GFS | 116 (20) | 303 (12) | 215 (4) | — |
| GEFS | 127 (20) | 246 (12) | 229 (4) | — |
各预报时效上与最佳路径的平均大圆距离,只计系统处于热带或副热带气旋阶段的时次;括号内为样本数。
最佳路径
美国最佳路径(JTWC / NHC,1 分钟平均风速)每 6 小时的位置;等级按萨菲尔–辛普森分级。
| 时间(UTC) | 位置 | 风速(节) | 气压(百帕) | 等级 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-08-19 00Z | 14.7°N 46.6°W | 30 | 1008 | TD |
| 2023-08-19 06Z | 15.4°N 47.8°W | 30 | 1007 | TD |
| 2023-08-19 12Z | 16.1°N 48.8°W | 30 | 1006 | TD |
| 2023-08-19 18Z | 16.6°N 49.9°W | 30 | 1006 | TD |
| 2023-08-20 00Z | 16.9°N 51.1°W | 30 | 1006 | TD |
| 2023-08-20 06Z | 16.8°N 52.3°W | 30 | 1006 | TD |
| 2023-08-20 12Z | 16.7°N 53.3°W | 35 | 1005 | TS |
| 2023-08-20 18Z | 16.6°N 54.2°W | 35 | 1005 | TS |
| 2023-08-21 00Z | 16.6°N 55.1°W | 35 | 1005 | TS |
| 2023-08-21 06Z | 16.6°N 55.9°W | 35 | 1005 | TS |
| 2023-08-21 12Z | 16.7°N 56.6°W | 30 | 1006 | TD |
| 2023-08-21 18Z | 16.9°N 57.2°W | 25 | 1006 | TD |
| 2023-08-22 00Z | 17.0°N 57.9°W | 25 | 1006 | TD |
| 2023-08-22 06Z | 17.1°N 58.7°W | 25 | 1007 | TD |
| 2023-08-22 12Z | 17.4°N 59.5°W | 25 | 1008 | TD |
| 2023-08-22 18Z | 17.7°N 60.1°W | 25 | 1008 | TD |
| 2023-08-23 00Z | 18.1°N 60.2°W | 25 | 1008 | TD |
| 2023-08-23 06Z | 18.3°N 59.7°W | 25 | 1008 | TD |
| 2023-08-23 12Z | 18.5°N 59.2°W | 25 | 1009 | TD |
| 2023-08-23 18Z | 18.3°N 59.0°W | 25 | 1009 | TD |
| 2023-08-24 00Z | 18.1°N 58.9°W | 20 | 1010 | TD |
| 2023-08-24 06Z | 17.7°N 58.7°W | 20 | 1010 | TD |
| 2023-08-24 12Z | 17.3°N 58.5°W | 20 | 1010 | TD |
| 2023-08-24 18Z | 16.9°N 58.6°W | 20 | 1010 | TD |
| 2023-08-25 00Z | 16.5°N 58.8°W | 20 | 1010 | TD |
| 2023-08-25 06Z | 16.1°N 59.1°W | 20 | 1010 | TD |
| 2023-08-25 12Z | 16.0°N 59.3°W | 20 | 1010 | TD |
| 2023-08-25 18Z | 16.0°N 59.5°W | 20 | 1010 | TD |
| 2023-08-26 00Z | 16.1°N 59.7°W | 20 | 1010 | TD |
| 2023-08-26 06Z | 16.3°N 59.8°W | 25 | 1010 | TD |
| 2023-08-26 12Z | 16.9°N 59.7°W | 25 | 1010 | TD |
| 2023-08-26 18Z | 17.8°N 59.5°W | 25 | 1010 | TD |
| 2023-08-27 00Z | 18.7°N 59.4°W | 25 | 1010 | TD |
| 2023-08-27 06Z | 19.4°N 59.5°W | 25 | 1010 | TD |
| 2023-08-27 12Z | 19.9°N 59.6°W | 25 | 1010 | TD |
| 2023-08-27 18Z | 20.2°N 59.6°W | 25 | 1010 | TD |
| 2023-08-28 00Z | 20.5°N 59.6°W | 25 | 1010 | TD |
| 2023-08-28 06Z | 20.8°N 59.4°W | 25 | 1010 | TD |
| 2023-08-28 12Z | 21.2°N 59.2°W | 25 | 1010 | TD |
| 2023-08-28 18Z | 21.6°N 59.2°W | 25 | 1010 | TD |
| 2023-08-29 00Z | 22.3°N 59.4°W | 25 | 1011 | TD |
| 2023-08-29 06Z | 23.0°N 59.6°W | 25 | 1011 | TD |
| 2023-08-29 12Z | 23.8°N 59.6°W | 25 | 1012 | TD |
| 2023-08-29 18Z | 24.6°N 59.6°W | 25 | 1012 | TD |
| 2023-08-30 00Z | 25.4°N 59.3°W | 25 | 1012 | TD |
| 2023-08-30 06Z | 26.2°N 59.0°W | 25 | 1010 | TD |
| 2023-08-30 12Z | 27.0°N 58.7°W | 25 | 1010 | TD |
| 2023-08-30 18Z | 27.5°N 58.5°W | 25 | 1009 | TD |
| 2023-08-31 00Z | 28.0°N 58.3°W | 30 | 1009 | TD |
| 2023-08-31 06Z | 28.4°N 58.1°W | 30 | 1008 | TD |
| 2023-08-31 12Z | 28.5°N 57.6°W | 30 | 1008 | TD |
| 2023-08-31 18Z | 28.6°N 57.0°W | 30 | 1007 | TD |
| 2023-09-01 00Z | 28.8°N 56.4°W | 30 | 1006 | TD |
| 2023-09-01 06Z | 28.8°N 55.7°W | 30 | 1006 | TD |
| 2023-09-01 12Z | 28.4°N 55.2°W | 30 | 1006 | TD |
| 2023-09-01 18Z | 27.9°N 54.8°W | 35 | 1005 | TS |
| 2023-09-02 00Z | 27.7°N 54.6°W | 35 | 1005 | TS |
| 2023-09-02 06Z | 27.6°N 54.4°W | 40 | 1003 | TS |
| 2023-09-02 12Z | 27.7°N 54.1°W | 45 | 999 | TS |
| 2023-09-02 18Z | 28.1°N 53.8°W | 45 | 999 | TS |
| 2023-09-03 00Z | 28.6°N 53.5°W | 50 | 998 | TS |
| 2023-09-03 06Z | 29.3°N 53.0°W | 50 | 998 | TS |
| 2023-09-03 12Z | 30.4°N 52.4°W | 50 | 998 | TS |
| 2023-09-03 18Z | 31.9°N 51.6°W | 45 | 999 | TS |
| 2023-09-04 00Z | 33.9°N 50.9°W | 45 | 1000 | TS |
| 2023-09-04 06Z | 36.5°N 50.7°W | 45 | 1000 | TS |
| 2023-09-04 12Z | 39.4°N 50.8°W | 40 | 1001 | TS |