2023 年热带气旋季 · 南半球
气旋FABIEN Fabien · SH192023
气旋FABIEN活动于南半球，自 2023-05-11 至 2023-05-26，共 14 天，最大风速 105 节（H3），最低气压 961 百帕。存档中来自 ECMWF、ECMWF ENS、GFS、GEFS 的 148 次预报已与最佳路径比对；48 小时预报中 ECMWF ENS 最接近，平均偏差 98 公里。
- ATCF 编号
- SH192023
- 海域
- 南半球
- 活动时间
- 2023-05-11 → 2023-05-26 (14 天)
- 最大风速
- 105 kt · 54 m/s · H3
- 最低气压
- 961 hPa
- 存档预报
- 148
- 来源
- ECMWF · ECMWF ENS · GFS · GEFS
预报路径误差（公里）
| 来源 | 24 h | 48 h | 72 h | 120 h |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF | 41 (2) | 56 (2) | 78 (2) | 92 (2) |
| ECMWF ENS | 66 (32) | 98 (30) | 137 (29) | 197 (25) |
| GFS | 85 (36) | 141 (36) | 257 (34) | 434 (26) |
| GEFS | 90 (36) | 146 (36) | 253 (34) | 415 (26) |
各预报时效上与最佳路径的平均大圆距离，只计系统处于热带或副热带气旋阶段的时次；括号内为样本数。
最佳路径
美国最佳路径（JTWC / NHC，1 分钟平均风速）每 6 小时的位置；等级按萨菲尔–辛普森分级。
| 时间（UTC） | 位置 | 风速（节） | 气压（百帕） | 等级 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-05-12 06Z | 2.2°S 88.0°E | 20 | 1009 | TD |
| 2023-05-12 12Z | 2.2°S 87.5°E | 20 | 1009 | TD |
| 2023-05-12 18Z | 2.3°S 86.9°E | 20 | 1007 | TD |
| 2023-05-13 00Z | 2.6°S 86.4°E | 25 | 1006 | TD |
| 2023-05-13 06Z | 3.0°S 85.9°E | 30 | 1005 | TD |
| 2023-05-13 12Z | 3.6°S 85.1°E | 30 | 1005 | TD |
| 2023-05-13 18Z | 4.0°S 84.2°E | 30 | 1005 | TD |
| 2023-05-14 00Z | 4.3°S 83.1°E | 35 | 1003 | TS |
| 2023-05-14 06Z | 4.6°S 82.0°E | 45 | 999 | TS |
| 2023-05-14 12Z | 4.8°S 81.2°E | 55 | 985 | TS |
| 2023-05-14 18Z | 4.9°S 80.4°E | 60 | 977 | TS |
| 2023-05-15 00Z | 5.1°S 79.5°E | 70 | 976 | H1 |
| 2023-05-15 06Z | 5.3°S 78.4°E | 80 | 975 | H1 |
| 2023-05-15 12Z | 5.5°S 77.5°E | 85 | 974 | H2 |
| 2023-05-15 18Z | 5.8°S 76.8°E | 90 | 970 | H2 |
| 2023-05-16 00Z | 6.2°S 76.1°E | 90 | 969 | H2 |
| 2023-05-16 06Z | 6.7°S 75.6°E | 95 | 968 | H2 |
| 2023-05-16 12Z | 7.3°S 75.0°E | 100 | 962 | H3 |
| 2023-05-16 18Z | 7.8°S 74.5°E | 105 | 961 | H3 |
| 2023-05-17 00Z | 8.3°S 74.1°E | 100 | 967 | H3 |
| 2023-05-17 06Z | 8.7°S 73.7°E | 90 | 972 | H2 |
| 2023-05-17 12Z | 8.8°S 73.4°E | 80 | 977 | H1 |
| 2023-05-17 18Z | 8.9°S 73.0°E | 65 | 986 | H1 |
| 2023-05-18 00Z | 8.9°S 72.5°E | 55 | 990 | TS |
| 2023-05-18 06Z | 8.9°S 72.0°E | 50 | 990 | TS |
| 2023-05-18 12Z | 9.0°S 71.6°E | 45 | 989 | TS |
| 2023-05-18 18Z | 9.2°S 71.0°E | 45 | 989 | TS |
| 2023-05-19 00Z | 9.5°S 70.4°E | 40 | 989 | TS |
| 2023-05-19 06Z | 9.7°S 70.0°E | 40 | 989 | TS |
| 2023-05-19 12Z | 9.8°S 69.8°E | 40 | 991 | TS |
| 2023-05-19 18Z | 9.9°S 69.6°E | 45 | 995 | TS |
| 2023-05-20 00Z | 9.9°S 69.4°E | 50 | 995 | TS |
| 2023-05-20 06Z | 10.0°S 69.3°E | 50 | 997 | TS |
| 2023-05-20 12Z | 10.1°S 69.2°E | 50 | 997 | TS |
| 2023-05-20 18Z | 10.2°S 69.0°E | 40 | 1000 | TS |
| 2023-05-21 00Z | 10.3°S 68.9°E | 35 | 1002 | TS |
| 2023-05-21 06Z | 10.5°S 68.8°E | 30 | 1003 | TD |
| 2023-05-21 12Z | 10.8°S 68.8°E | 30 | 1003 | TD |
| 2023-05-21 18Z | 10.9°S 68.8°E | 25 | 1006 | TD |
| 2023-05-22 00Z | 11.7°S 69.0°E | 30 | 1004 | TD |
| 2023-05-22 06Z | 12.6°S 69.3°E | 30 | 1005 | TD |
| 2023-05-22 12Z | 12.9°S 69.4°E | 30 | 1005 | TD |
| 2023-05-22 18Z | 13.2°S 69.6°E | 30 | 1007 | TD |
| 2023-05-23 00Z | 13.8°S 70.1°E | 30 | 1007 | TD |
| 2023-05-23 06Z | 14.4°S 70.5°E | 30 | 1007 | TD |
| 2023-05-23 12Z | 14.9°S 70.7°E | 30 | 1007 | TD |
| 2023-05-23 18Z | 15.7°S 70.4°E | 30 | 1008 | TD |
| 2023-05-24 00Z | 16.5°S 69.9°E | 30 | 1007 | TD |
| 2023-05-24 06Z | 17.3°S 69.4°E | 30 | 1007 | TD |
| 2023-05-24 12Z | 18.1°S 69.0°E | 30 | 1007 | TD |
| 2023-05-24 18Z | 19.2°S 68.7°E | 30 | 1007 | TD |
| 2023-05-25 00Z | 20.3°S 68.5°E | 30 | 1007 | TD |
| 2023-05-25 06Z | 21.7°S 68.7°E | 30 | 1007 | TD |
| 2023-05-25 12Z | 23.0°S 69.6°E | 30 | 1007 | TD |