2023 年热带气旋季 · 东北太平洋
飓风DORA Dora · EP052023
飓风DORA活动于东北太平洋,自 2023-07-31 至 2023-08-22,共 22 天,最大风速 130 节(H4),最低气压 939 百帕。存档中来自 NHC、ECMWF、ECMWF ENS、GFS、GEFS 的 260 次预报已与最佳路径比对;48 小时预报中 NHC 最接近,平均偏差 80 公里。
- ATCF 编号
- EP052023
- 海域
- 东北太平洋
- 活动时间
- 2023-07-31 → 2023-08-22 (22 天)
- 最大风速
- 130 kt · 67 m/s · H4
- 最低气压
- 939 hPa
- 存档预报
- 260
- 来源
- NHC · ECMWF · ECMWF ENS · GFS · GEFS
预报路径误差(公里)
| 来源 | 24 h | 48 h | 72 h | 120 h |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NHC | 46 (45) | 80 (45) | 120 (45) | 234 (45) |
| ECMWF | 54 (48) | 98 (45) | 154 (44) | 298 (21) |
| ECMWF ENS | 53 (48) | 100 (45) | 151 (45) | 302 (42) |
| GFS | 52 (44) | 91 (44) | 126 (44) | 183 (44) |
| GEFS | 49 (44) | 85 (44) | 111 (44) | 156 (44) |
各预报时效上与最佳路径的平均大圆距离,只计系统处于热带或副热带气旋阶段的时次;括号内为样本数。
最佳路径
美国最佳路径(JTWC / NHC,1 分钟平均风速)每 6 小时的位置;等级按萨菲尔–辛普森分级。
| 时间(UTC) | 位置 | 风速(节) | 气压(百帕) | 等级 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-07-31 12Z | 14.3°N 102.6°W | 25 | 1008 | TD |
| 2023-07-31 18Z | 14.8°N 103.7°W | 30 | 1008 | TD |
| 2023-08-01 00Z | 15.4°N 105.0°W | 30 | 1008 | TD |
| 2023-08-01 06Z | 15.8°N 106.4°W | 35 | 1006 | TS |
| 2023-08-01 12Z | 16.0°N 107.9°W | 45 | 1002 | TS |
| 2023-08-01 18Z | 16.1°N 109.4°W | 55 | 998 | TS |
| 2023-08-02 00Z | 16.1°N 110.6°W | 65 | 994 | H1 |
| 2023-08-02 06Z | 15.9°N 111.9°W | 80 | 985 | H1 |
| 2023-08-02 12Z | 15.7°N 113.5°W | 90 | 976 | H2 |
| 2023-08-02 18Z | 15.5°N 114.9°W | 90 | 976 | H2 |
| 2023-08-03 00Z | 15.3°N 116.2°W | 110 | 956 | H3 |
| 2023-08-03 06Z | 15.1°N 117.7°W | 115 | 952 | H4 |
| 2023-08-03 12Z | 14.9°N 119.3°W | 110 | 955 | H3 |
| 2023-08-03 18Z | 14.5°N 121.0°W | 105 | 958 | H3 |
| 2023-08-04 00Z | 14.2°N 122.6°W | 120 | 950 | H4 |
| 2023-08-04 06Z | 14.1°N 124.3°W | 115 | 952 | H4 |
| 2023-08-04 12Z | 14.0°N 126.1°W | 105 | 957 | H3 |
| 2023-08-04 18Z | 13.8°N 127.7°W | 100 | 957 | H3 |
| 2023-08-05 00Z | 13.7°N 129.3°W | 90 | 972 | H2 |
| 2023-08-05 06Z | 13.5°N 130.8°W | 90 | 972 | H2 |
| 2023-08-05 12Z | 13.4°N 132.5°W | 95 | 967 | H2 |
| 2023-08-05 18Z | 13.3°N 134.0°W | 115 | 950 | H4 |
| 2023-08-06 00Z | 13.2°N 135.6°W | 130 | 939 | H4 |
| 2023-08-06 06Z | 13.1°N 137.4°W | 130 | 939 | H4 |
| 2023-08-06 12Z | 13.0°N 139.2°W | 125 | 943 | H4 |
| 2023-08-06 18Z | 12.9°N 141.2°W | 120 | 948 | H4 |
| 2023-08-07 00Z | 12.7°N 143.1°W | 120 | 948 | H4 |
| 2023-08-07 06Z | 12.6°N 145.2°W | 120 | 948 | H4 |
| 2023-08-07 12Z | 12.4°N 147.3°W | 115 | 953 | H4 |
| 2023-08-07 18Z | 12.3°N 149.3°W | 115 | 953 | H4 |
| 2023-08-08 00Z | 12.1°N 151.3°W | 115 | 953 | H4 |
| 2023-08-08 06Z | 11.8°N 153.3°W | 115 | 953 | H4 |
| 2023-08-08 12Z | 11.5°N 155.2°W | 115 | 953 | H4 |
| 2023-08-08 18Z | 11.5°N 157.1°W | 115 | 953 | H4 |
| 2023-08-09 00Z | 11.4°N 159.2°W | 115 | 953 | H4 |
| 2023-08-09 06Z | 11.4°N 161.2°W | 115 | 953 | H4 |
| 2023-08-09 12Z | 11.4°N 163.1°W | 115 | 953 | H4 |
| 2023-08-09 18Z | 11.5°N 165.1°W | 120 | 950 | H4 |
| 2023-08-10 00Z | 11.6°N 166.9°W | 125 | 946 | H4 |
| 2023-08-10 06Z | 11.9°N 168.9°W | 120 | 950 | H4 |
| 2023-08-10 12Z | 12.1°N 170.5°W | 105 | 961 | H3 |
| 2023-08-10 18Z | 12.5°N 172.2°W | 105 | 961 | H3 |
| 2023-08-11 00Z | 12.9°N 173.8°W | 105 | 961 | H3 |
| 2023-08-11 06Z | 13.5°N 175.5°W | 105 | 961 | H3 |
| 2023-08-11 12Z | 14.2°N 177.1°W | 100 | 965 | H3 |
| 2023-08-11 18Z | 14.8°N 178.6°W | 95 | 968 | H2 |
| 2023-08-12 00Z | 15.6°N 179.8°W | 105 | 960 | H3 |
| 2023-08-12 06Z | 16.5°N 178.9°E | 90 | 973 | H2 |
| 2023-08-12 12Z | 17.2°N 177.8°E | 80 | 982 | H1 |
| 2023-08-12 18Z | 17.6°N 176.6°E | 70 | 987 | H1 |
| 2023-08-13 00Z | 18.0°N 175.2°E | 60 | 993 | TS |
| 2023-08-13 06Z | 18.0°N 174.0°E | 55 | 996 | TS |
| 2023-08-13 12Z | 18.0°N 172.7°E | 35 | 1007 | TS |
| 2023-08-13 18Z | 18.3°N 171.5°E | 30 | 1007 | TD |
| 2023-08-14 00Z | 18.7°N 170.2°E | 30 | 1000 | TD |
| 2023-08-14 06Z | 19.3°N 169.1°E | 35 | 1007 | TS |
| 2023-08-14 12Z | 19.7°N 168.5°E | 35 | 1008 | TS |
| 2023-08-14 18Z | 20.1°N 168.0°E | 35 | 1006 | TS |
| 2023-08-15 00Z | 20.5°N 167.7°E | 25 | 1001 | TD |
| 2023-08-15 06Z | 21.4°N 167.7°E | 25 | 998 | TD |
| 2023-08-15 12Z | 22.6°N 167.9°E | 25 | 999 | TD |
| 2023-08-15 18Z | 23.7°N 168.2°E | 30 | 995 | TD |
| 2023-08-16 00Z | 24.5°N 168.4°E | 25 | 1010 | TD |
| 2023-08-16 06Z | 25.3°N 168.5°E | 25 | 996 | TD |
| 2023-08-16 12Z | 26.7°N 168.6°E | 25 | 995 | TD |
| 2023-08-16 18Z | 27.7°N 168.3°E | 25 | 994 | TD |
| 2023-08-17 00Z | 28.7°N 168.0°E | 25 | 993 | TD |