2026 年熱帶氣旋季 · 東北太平洋
颶風SIMON Simon · EP202026
颶風SIMON活動於東北太平洋,自 2026-10-04 至 2026-10-16,共 12 天,最大風速 135 節(H4),最低氣壓 928 百帕。存檔中來自 NHC、ECMWF、ECMWF ENS、GFS、GEFS、Google DeepMind 的 291 次預報已與最佳路徑比對;48 小時預報中 Google DeepMind 最接近,平均偏差 110 公里。
- ATCF 編號
- EP202026
- 海域
- 東北太平洋
- 活動時間
- 2026-10-04 → 2026-10-16 (12 天)
- 最大風速
- 135 kt · 69 m/s · H4
- 最低氣壓
- 928 hPa
- 存檔預報
- 291
- 來源
- NHC · ECMWF · ECMWF ENS · GFS · GEFS · Google DeepMind
預報路徑誤差(公里)
| 來源 | 24 h | 48 h | 72 h | 120 h |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NHC | 61 (33) | 150 (29) | 292 (19) | 456 (7) |
| ECMWF | 72 (33) | 116 (29) | 218 (20) | 398 (5) |
| ECMWF ENS | 76 (33) | 127 (29) | 195 (21) | 368 (3) |
| GFS | 83 (33) | 144 (29) | 198 (20) | 614 (11) |
| GEFS | 75 (33) | 121 (23) | 176 (12) | 378 (4) |
| Google DeepMind | 53 (33) | 110 (29) | 236 (25) | 274 (5) |
各預報時效上與最佳路徑的平均大圓距離,只計系統處於熱帶或副熱帶氣旋階段的時次;括號內為樣本數。
最佳路徑
美國最佳路徑(JTWC / NHC,1 分鐘平均風速)每 6 小時的位置;等級按薩菲爾–辛普森分級。
| 時間(UTC) | 位置 | 風速(節) | 氣壓(百帕) | 等級 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 12Z | 11.8°N 91.5°W | 15 | — | TD |
| 2026-10-04 18Z | 11.9°N 92.6°W | 15 | — | TD |
| 2026-10-05 00Z | 12.0°N 93.8°W | 15 | — | TD |
| 2026-10-05 06Z | 12.0°N 94.9°W | 15 | — | TD |
| 2026-10-05 12Z | 12.2°N 95.8°W | 25 | 1009 | TD |
| 2026-10-05 18Z | 12.4°N 96.4°W | 25 | 1009 | TD |
| 2026-10-06 00Z | 12.4°N 97.0°W | 25 | 1009 | TD |
| 2026-10-06 06Z | 12.6°N 97.7°W | 25 | 1009 | TD |
| 2026-10-06 12Z | 12.8°N 98.2°W | 25 | 1008 | TD |
| 2026-10-06 18Z | 13.0°N 98.7°W | 25 | 1007 | TD |
| 2026-10-07 00Z | 13.9°N 99.4°W | 25 | 1006 | TD |
| 2026-10-07 06Z | 14.5°N 100.0°W | 25 | 1006 | TD |
| 2026-10-07 12Z | 14.9°N 100.6°W | 30 | 1006 | TD |
| 2026-10-07 18Z | 15.2°N 101.3°W | 35 | 1004 | TS |
| 2026-10-08 00Z | 15.3°N 102.1°W | 40 | 1002 | TS |
| 2026-10-08 06Z | 15.4°N 102.7°W | 45 | 1000 | TS |
| 2026-10-08 12Z | 15.4°N 103.3°W | 55 | 995 | TS |
| 2026-10-08 18Z | 15.4°N 103.8°W | 60 | 992 | TS |
| 2026-10-09 00Z | 15.5°N 104.2°W | 65 | 985 | H1 |
| 2026-10-09 06Z | 15.7°N 104.4°W | 80 | 978 | H1 |
| 2026-10-09 12Z | 15.8°N 104.5°W | 85 | 976 | H2 |
| 2026-10-09 18Z | 16.0°N 104.6°W | 90 | 966 | H2 |
| 2026-10-10 00Z | 16.6°N 104.6°W | 105 | 952 | H3 |
| 2026-10-10 06Z | 17.0°N 104.7°W | 120 | 945 | H4 |
| 2026-10-10 12Z | 17.3°N 104.8°W | 130 | 938 | H4 |
| 2026-10-10 18Z | 17.4°N 104.8°W | 130 | 932 | H4 |
| 2026-10-11 00Z | 18.0°N 104.9°W | 135 | 930 | H4 |
| 2026-10-11 06Z | 18.4°N 105.0°W | 135 | 928 | H4 |
| 2026-10-11 12Z | 18.9°N 105.2°W | 130 | 933 | H4 |
| 2026-10-11 18Z | 19.4°N 105.6°W | 115 | 943 | H4 |
| 2026-10-12 00Z | 19.6°N 105.8°W | 100 | 958 | H3 |
| 2026-10-12 06Z | 19.8°N 106.0°W | 95 | 961 | H2 |
| 2026-10-12 12Z | 20.0°N 106.4°W | 95 | 962 | H2 |
| 2026-10-12 18Z | 20.1°N 106.7°W | 90 | 966 | H2 |
| 2026-10-13 00Z | 20.3°N 106.9°W | 85 | 969 | H2 |
| 2026-10-13 06Z | 20.3°N 107.1°W | 80 | 977 | H1 |
| 2026-10-13 12Z | 20.3°N 107.2°W | 80 | 977 | H1 |
| 2026-10-13 18Z | 20.2°N 107.4°W | 80 | 977 | H1 |
| 2026-10-14 00Z | 20.2°N 107.5°W | 90 | 969 | H2 |
| 2026-10-14 06Z | 20.0°N 107.7°W | 90 | 969 | H2 |
| 2026-10-14 12Z | 19.8°N 108.0°W | 85 | 972 | H2 |
| 2026-10-14 18Z | 19.5°N 108.2°W | 75 | 980 | H1 |
| 2026-10-15 00Z | 19.2°N 108.4°W | 55 | 991 | TS |
| 2026-10-15 06Z | 19.1°N 108.3°W | 55 | 992 | TS |
| 2026-10-15 12Z | 19.1°N 108.1°W | 50 | 996 | TS |
| 2026-10-15 18Z | 19.2°N 108.2°W | 45 | 999 | TS |
| 2026-10-16 00Z | 19.4°N 108.2°W | 40 | 1002 | TS |
| 2026-10-16 06Z | 19.7°N 108.5°W | 35 | 1002 | TS |
| 2026-10-16 12Z | 20.4°N 109.2°W | 35 | 1002 | TS |
| 2026-10-16 18Z | 21.3°N 110.0°W | 30 | 1006 | TD |