2027 tropical cyclone season · Southern Hemisphere

Cyclone Agueda Agueda · SH022027

Cyclone Agueda was tracked in the Southern Hemisphere from 2026-10-20 to 2026-10-24 (4 days), peaking at 54 kt (TS) with a minimum pressure of 993 hPa. 77 archived forecasts from JTWC, ECMWF, ECMWF ENS, GFS, GEFS are verified against its best track; at 48 hours the closest was JTWC, 71 km off on average.

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ATCF ID
SH022027
Basin
Southern Hemisphere
Tracked
2026-10-20 → 2026-10-24 (4 days)
Peak wind
54 kt · 28 m/s · TS
Minimum pressure
993 hPa
Archived forecasts
77
Sources
JTWC · ECMWF · ECMWF ENS · GFS · GEFS
TDTSH1H2H3H4H5

Forecast track error (km)

Source24 h48 h72 h120 h
JTWC60 (6)71 (4)159 (2)—
ECMWF65 (10)82 (8)68 (4)—
ECMWF ENS55 (12)79 (8)55 (4)—
GFS100 (12)124 (8)150 (4)—
GEFS99 (12)126 (8)185 (4)—

Mean great-circle distance to the best track at each lead time, counted while the system was a tropical or subtropical cyclone; the number of cases is in brackets.

Best track

Six-hourly positions of the US best track (JTWC / NHC, one-minute winds); grades on the Saffir–Simpson scale.

Time (UTC)PositionWind (kt)Pressure (hPa)Grade
2026-10-20 06Z4.5°S 53.8°E351006TS
2026-10-20 12Z4.7°S 53.2°E391003TS
2026-10-20 18Z5.1°S 52.7°E391003TS
2026-10-21 00Z5.4°S 52.0°E451003TS
2026-10-21 06Z5.3°S 52.2°E451000TS
2026-10-21 12Z5.7°S 51.4°E51997TS
2026-10-21 18Z6.0°S 50.8°E51997TS
2026-10-22 00Z5.9°S 51.1°E391001TS
2026-10-22 06Z6.0°S 50.8°E51996TS
2026-10-22 12Z6.2°S 50.1°E54993TS
2026-10-22 18Z6.7°S 49.7°E51993TS
2026-10-23 00Z5.8°S 50.0°E351003TS
2026-10-23 06Z5.7°S 49.5°E351006TS
2026-10-23 12Z5.8°S 48.7°E351006TS
2026-10-23 18Z5.7°S 47.7°E291009TD
2026-10-24 00Z5.5°S 46.7°E291009TD