2026 tropical cyclone season · eastern North Pacific
Hurricane Vance Vance · EP222026
Hurricane Vance was tracked in the eastern North Pacific from 2026-10-18 to 2026-10-30 (11 days), peaking at 100 kt (H3) with a minimum pressure of 961 hPa. 314 archived forecasts from NHC, JTWC, ECMWF, ECMWF ENS, GFS, GEFS, Google DeepMind are verified against its best track; at 48 hours the closest was ECMWF ENS, 60 km off on average.
- ATCF ID
- EP222026
- Basin
- eastern North Pacific
- Tracked
- 2026-10-18 → 2026-10-30 (11 days)
- Peak wind
- 100 kt · 51 m/s · H3
- Minimum pressure
- 961 hPa
- Archived forecasts
- 314
- Sources
- NHC · JTWC · ECMWF · ECMWF ENS · GFS · GEFS · Google DeepMind
Forecast track error (km)
| Source | 24 h | 48 h | 72 h | 120 h |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NHC | 49 (30) | 97 (26) | 169 (22) | 353 (14) |
| JTWC | 51 (28) | 101 (24) | 181 (20) | 403 (12) |
| ECMWF | 67 (22) | 76 (22) | 120 (19) | 298 (13) |
| ECMWF ENS | 55 (26) | 60 (22) | 93 (20) | 264 (13) |
| GFS | 82 (30) | 94 (26) | 167 (22) | 407 (14) |
| GEFS | 63 (30) | 85 (26) | 120 (22) | 267 (14) |
| Google DeepMind | 39 (30) | 64 (26) | 127 (22) | 378 (14) |
Mean great-circle distance to the best track at each lead time, counted while the system was a tropical or subtropical cyclone; the number of cases is in brackets.
Best track
Six-hourly positions of the US best track (JTWC / NHC, one-minute winds); grades on the Saffir–Simpson scale.
| Time (UTC) | Position | Wind (kt) | Pressure (hPa) | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 18Z | 10.6°N 89.2°W | 15 | 1011 | TD |
| 2026-10-19 00Z | 10.7°N 90.3°W | 15 | 1011 | TD |
| 2026-10-19 06Z | 10.7°N 91.2°W | 15 | 1011 | TD |
| 2026-10-19 12Z | 10.7°N 92.1°W | 15 | 1011 | TD |
| 2026-10-19 18Z | 10.6°N 93.0°W | 20 | 1009 | TD |
| 2026-10-20 00Z | 10.3°N 94.0°W | 20 | 1009 | TD |
| 2026-10-20 06Z | 10.0°N 94.8°W | 25 | 1007 | TD |
| 2026-10-20 12Z | 10.0°N 95.6°W | 25 | 1007 | TD |
| 2026-10-20 18Z | 9.8°N 96.2°W | 25 | 1007 | TD |
| 2026-10-21 00Z | 9.7°N 96.9°W | 25 | 1007 | TD |
| 2026-10-21 06Z | 9.6°N 97.8°W | 25 | 1007 | TD |
| 2026-10-21 12Z | 9.5°N 98.7°W | 30 | 1005 | TD |
| 2026-10-21 18Z | 9.4°N 99.5°W | 35 | 1003 | TS |
| 2026-10-22 00Z | 9.5°N 100.0°W | 35 | 1003 | TS |
| 2026-10-22 06Z | 9.6°N 100.5°W | 40 | 1000 | TS |
| 2026-10-22 12Z | 9.7°N 100.9°W | 45 | 999 | TS |
| 2026-10-22 18Z | 9.8°N 101.3°W | 55 | 994 | TS |
| 2026-10-23 00Z | 10.4°N 101.6°W | 60 | 991 | TS |
| 2026-10-23 06Z | 10.6°N 101.9°W | 70 | 985 | H1 |
| 2026-10-23 12Z | 10.6°N 102.1°W | 75 | 981 | H1 |
| 2026-10-23 18Z | 11.0°N 102.2°W | 90 | 971 | H2 |
| 2026-10-24 00Z | 11.6°N 102.6°W | 100 | 961 | H3 |
| 2026-10-24 06Z | 12.0°N 102.9°W | 95 | 965 | H2 |
| 2026-10-24 12Z | 12.5°N 103.1°W | 90 | 970 | H2 |
| 2026-10-24 18Z | 13.0°N 103.2°W | 85 | 974 | H2 |
| 2026-10-25 00Z | 13.5°N 103.3°W | 80 | 977 | H1 |
| 2026-10-25 06Z | 13.7°N 103.5°W | 75 | 980 | H1 |
| 2026-10-25 12Z | 13.9°N 103.6°W | 65 | 989 | H1 |
| 2026-10-25 18Z | 14.6°N 104.0°W | 60 | 994 | TS |
| 2026-10-26 00Z | 14.9°N 104.5°W | 55 | 994 | TS |
| 2026-10-26 06Z | 15.2°N 104.9°W | 55 | 995 | TS |
| 2026-10-26 12Z | 15.3°N 105.3°W | 55 | 997 | TS |
| 2026-10-26 18Z | 15.3°N 105.9°W | 55 | 997 | TS |
| 2026-10-27 00Z | 15.3°N 106.2°W | 45 | 999 | TS |
| 2026-10-27 06Z | 15.7°N 106.7°W | 45 | 999 | TS |
| 2026-10-27 12Z | 16.1°N 107.3°W | 35 | 1003 | TS |
| 2026-10-27 18Z | 16.6°N 108.0°W | 35 | 1003 | TS |
| 2026-10-28 00Z | 16.9°N 108.4°W | 35 | 1003 | TS |
| 2026-10-28 06Z | 18.0°N 108.7°W | 35 | 1003 | TS |
| 2026-10-28 12Z | 18.8°N 109.2°W | 35 | 1004 | TS |
| 2026-10-28 18Z | 19.6°N 109.2°W | 30 | 1006 | TD |
| 2026-10-29 00Z | 20.5°N 108.5°W | 30 | 1002 | TD |
| 2026-10-29 06Z | 20.6°N 108.5°W | 35 | 1001 | TS |
| 2026-10-29 12Z | 21.4°N 108.7°W | 35 | 1004 | TS |
| 2026-10-29 18Z | 22.0°N 108.6°W | 30 | 1005 | TD |
| 2026-10-30 00Z | 22.6°N 107.8°W | 25 | 1008 | TD |