2026 tropical cyclone season · Southern Hemisphere
Cyclone Urmil Urmil · SH232026
Cyclone Urmil was tracked in the Southern Hemisphere from 2026-02-25 to 2026-03-02 (5 days), peaking at 64 kt (H1) with a minimum pressure of 980 hPa. 31 archived forecasts from ECMWF, ECMWF ENS are verified against its best track; at 48 hours the closest was ECMWF, 164 km off on average.
- ATCF ID
- SH232026
- Basin
- Southern Hemisphere
- Tracked
- 2026-02-25 → 2026-03-02 (5 days)
- Peak wind
- 64 kt · 33 m/s · H1
- Minimum pressure
- 980 hPa
- Archived forecasts
- 31
- Sources
- ECMWF · ECMWF ENS
Forecast track error (km)
| Source | 24 h | 48 h | 72 h | 120 h |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF | 118 (10) | 164 (6) | 257 (2) | — |
| ECMWF ENS | 113 (10) | 178 (6) | 268 (2) | — |
Mean great-circle distance to the best track at each lead time, counted while the system was a tropical or subtropical cyclone; the number of cases is in brackets.
Best track
Six-hourly positions of the US best track (JTWC / NHC, one-minute winds); grades on the Saffir–Simpson scale.
| Time (UTC) | Position | Wind (kt) | Pressure (hPa) | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-26 18Z | 18.2°S 167.9°E | 35 | 996 | TS |
| 2026-02-27 00Z | 18.6°S 167.9°E | 45 | 992 | TS |
| 2026-02-27 06Z | 19.4°S 168.5°E | 54 | 985 | TS |
| 2026-02-27 12Z | 19.5°S 169.5°E | 60 | 985 | TS |
| 2026-02-27 18Z | 19.6°S 169.5°E | 60 | 984 | TS |
| 2026-02-28 00Z | 20.4°S 170.7°E | 64 | 984 | H1 |
| 2026-02-28 06Z | 20.8°S 171.7°E | 64 | 980 | H1 |
| 2026-02-28 12Z | 21.1°S 173.2°E | 64 | 981 | H1 |
| 2026-02-28 18Z | 22.1°S 175.1°E | 54 | 987 | TS |
| 2026-03-01 00Z | 24.0°S 177.5°E | 54 | 986 | TS |
| 2026-03-01 06Z | 25.7°S 179.2°E | 54 | 983 | TS |
| 2026-03-01 12Z | 27.4°S 178.5°W | 51 | 982 | TS |
| 2026-03-01 18Z | 28.8°S 176.3°W | 45 | 984 | TS |
| 2026-03-02 00Z | 31.5°S 172.0°W | 39 | 986 | TS |