2026 tropical cyclone season · western North Pacific
Typhoon Koguma Koguma · WP272026
Typhoon Koguma was tracked in the western North Pacific from 2026-10-05 to 2026-10-13 (9 days), peaking at 119 kt (H4) with a minimum pressure of 941 hPa. 74 archived forecasts from ECMWF, ECMWF ENS are verified against its best track; at 48 hours the closest was ECMWF ENS, 90 km off on average.
- ATCF ID
- WP272026
- Basin
- western North Pacific
- Tracked
- 2026-10-05 → 2026-10-13 (9 days)
- Peak wind
- 119 kt · 61 m/s · H4
- Minimum pressure
- 941 hPa
- Archived forecasts
- 74
- Sources
- ECMWF · ECMWF ENS
Forecast track error (km)
| Source | 24 h | 48 h | 72 h | 120 h |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF | 50 (32) | 91 (28) | 129 (24) | 355 (16) |
| ECMWF ENS | 52 (32) | 90 (28) | 127 (24) | 267 (16) |
Mean great-circle distance to the best track at each lead time, counted while the system was a tropical or subtropical cyclone; the number of cases is in brackets.
Best track
Six-hourly positions of the US best track (JTWC / NHC, one-minute winds); grades on the Saffir–Simpson scale.
| Time (UTC) | Position | Wind (kt) | Pressure (hPa) | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-05 00Z | 10.5°N 168.0°E | 29 | 1002 | TD |
| 2026-10-05 06Z | 11.0°N 168.0°E | 35 | 1000 | TS |
| 2026-10-05 12Z | 11.5°N 167.9°E | 35 | 1000 | TS |
| 2026-10-05 18Z | 12.2°N 167.6°E | 39 | 997 | TS |
| 2026-10-06 00Z | 12.9°N 167.0°E | 45 | 995 | TS |
| 2026-10-06 06Z | 13.4°N 166.4°E | 45 | 995 | TS |
| 2026-10-06 12Z | 14.0°N 165.8°E | 45 | 995 | TS |
| 2026-10-06 18Z | 14.7°N 164.5°E | 51 | 995 | TS |
| 2026-10-07 00Z | 15.3°N 164.0°E | 51 | 996 | TS |
| 2026-10-07 06Z | 15.5°N 163.2°E | 54 | 992 | TS |
| 2026-10-07 12Z | 15.7°N 162.6°E | 51 | 995 | TS |
| 2026-10-07 18Z | 16.1°N 161.6°E | 54 | 992 | TS |
| 2026-10-08 00Z | 16.9°N 161.2°E | 54 | 992 | TS |
| 2026-10-08 06Z | 17.5°N 160.1°E | 60 | 989 | TS |
| 2026-10-08 12Z | 17.7°N 159.0°E | 64 | 985 | H1 |
| 2026-10-08 18Z | 18.1°N 157.7°E | 74 | 980 | H1 |
| 2026-10-09 00Z | 18.3°N 156.6°E | 84 | 973 | H2 |
| 2026-10-09 06Z | 19.3°N 155.5°E | 93 | 964 | H2 |
| 2026-10-09 12Z | 20.1°N 154.1°E | 99 | 961 | H3 |
| 2026-10-09 18Z | 20.7°N 153.0°E | 99 | 961 | H3 |
| 2026-10-10 00Z | 21.4°N 151.5°E | 109 | 952 | H3 |
| 2026-10-10 06Z | 22.2°N 150.4°E | 115 | 945 | H4 |
| 2026-10-10 12Z | 22.9°N 149.6°E | 119 | 942 | H4 |
| 2026-10-10 18Z | 23.8°N 148.9°E | 119 | 941 | H4 |
| 2026-10-11 00Z | 24.5°N 148.2°E | 115 | 944 | H4 |
| 2026-10-11 06Z | 25.3°N 147.8°E | 115 | 943 | H4 |
| 2026-10-11 12Z | 26.2°N 147.4°E | 109 | 947 | H3 |
| 2026-10-11 18Z | 27.1°N 147.3°E | 105 | 951 | H3 |
| 2026-10-12 00Z | 28.3°N 147.3°E | 99 | 954 | H3 |
| 2026-10-12 06Z | 29.8°N 147.7°E | 89 | 962 | H2 |
| 2026-10-12 12Z | 31.4°N 148.6°E | 80 | 971 | H1 |
| 2026-10-12 18Z | 32.2°N 149.6°E | 74 | 974 | H1 |
| 2026-10-13 00Z | 33.9°N 151.7°E | 70 | 979 | H1 |
| 2026-10-13 06Z | 35.4°N 153.7°E | 70 | 978 | H1 |
| 2026-10-13 12Z | 36.8°N 155.5°E | 60 | 985 | TS |
| 2026-10-13 18Z | 38.3°N 157.2°E | 51 | 988 | TS |