2026 tropical cyclone season · North Atlantic
Hurricane Isaias Isaias · AL092026
Hurricane Isaias was tracked in the North Atlantic from 2026-10-04 to 2026-10-11 (7 days), peaking at 105 kt (H3) with a minimum pressure of 959 hPa. 138 archived forecasts from NHC, ECMWF, ECMWF ENS, GFS, GEFS, Google DeepMind are verified against its best track; at 48 hours the closest was Google DeepMind, 42 km off on average.
- ATCF ID
- AL092026
- Basin
- North Atlantic
- Tracked
- 2026-10-04 → 2026-10-11 (7 days)
- Peak wind
- 105 kt · 54 m/s · H3
- Minimum pressure
- 959 hPa
- Archived forecasts
- 138
- Sources
- NHC · ECMWF · ECMWF ENS · GFS · GEFS · Google DeepMind
Forecast track error (km)
| Source | 24 h | 48 h | 72 h | 120 h |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NHC | 34 (10) | 66 (6) | 172 (2) | — |
| ECMWF | 99 (9) | 299 (5) | 503 (1) | — |
| ECMWF ENS | 109 (9) | 310 (5) | 514 (1) | — |
| GFS | 89 (10) | 188 (6) | 312 (2) | — |
| GEFS | 108 (10) | 288 (6) | 573 (2) | — |
| Google DeepMind | 12 (10) | 42 (6) | 53 (2) | — |
Mean great-circle distance to the best track at each lead time, counted while the system was a tropical or subtropical cyclone; the number of cases is in brackets.
Best track
Six-hourly positions of the US best track (JTWC / NHC, one-minute winds); grades on the Saffir–Simpson scale.
| Time (UTC) | Position | Wind (kt) | Pressure (hPa) | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 18Z | 22.0°N 96.5°W | 15 | — | TD |
| 2026-10-05 00Z | 22.0°N 96.5°W | 20 | — | TD |
| 2026-10-05 06Z | 22.0°N 96.5°W | 25 | — | TD |
| 2026-10-05 12Z | 22.0°N 96.5°W | 25 | 1010 | TD |
| 2026-10-05 18Z | 22.2°N 96.3°W | 25 | 1010 | TD |
| 2026-10-06 00Z | 22.3°N 96.1°W | 25 | 1009 | TD |
| 2026-10-06 06Z | 22.2°N 96.0°W | 25 | 1009 | TD |
| 2026-10-06 12Z | 22.0°N 96.0°W | 25 | 1008 | TD |
| 2026-10-06 18Z | 21.9°N 95.7°W | 30 | 1007 | TD |
| 2026-10-07 00Z | 21.7°N 95.3°W | 30 | 1006 | TD |
| 2026-10-07 06Z | 21.9°N 94.6°W | 35 | 1004 | TS |
| 2026-10-07 12Z | 22.2°N 93.9°W | 40 | 1002 | TS |
| 2026-10-07 18Z | 22.5°N 93.3°W | 50 | 995 | TS |
| 2026-10-08 00Z | 22.7°N 92.3°W | 60 | 988 | TS |
| 2026-10-08 06Z | 23.1°N 91.5°W | 70 | 981 | H1 |
| 2026-10-08 12Z | 23.4°N 90.6°W | 75 | 977 | H1 |
| 2026-10-08 18Z | 23.9°N 89.8°W | 80 | 975 | H1 |
| 2026-10-09 00Z | 24.8°N 89.0°W | 85 | 974 | H2 |
| 2026-10-09 06Z | 25.8°N 88.4°W | 90 | 970 | H2 |
| 2026-10-09 12Z | 27.0°N 87.6°W | 105 | 959 | H3 |
| 2026-10-09 18Z | 28.5°N 87.1°W | 105 | 959 | H3 |
| 2026-10-10 00Z | 30.2°N 86.6°W | 95 | 967 | H2 |
| 2026-10-10 06Z | 31.4°N 86.5°W | 45 | 1001 | TS |
| 2026-10-10 12Z | 32.3°N 86.7°W | 30 | 1004 | TD |
| 2026-10-10 18Z | 33.2°N 87.1°W | 25 | 1007 | TD |
| 2026-10-11 00Z | 34.4°N 87.0°W | 20 | 1009 | TD |
| 2026-10-11 06Z | 34.8°N 86.9°W | 20 | 1010 | TD |
| 2026-10-11 12Z | 37.3°N 84.8°W | 20 | 1010 | TD |