2026 tropical cyclone season · Southern Hemisphere
Cyclone Horacio Horacio · SH222026
Cyclone Horacio was tracked in the Southern Hemisphere from 2026-02-17 to 2026-03-03 (14 days), peaking at 138 kt (H5) with a minimum pressure of 920 hPa. 49 archived forecasts from ECMWF, ECMWF ENS are verified against its best track; at 48 hours the closest was ECMWF ENS, 81 km off on average.
- ATCF ID
- SH222026
- Basin
- Southern Hemisphere
- Tracked
- 2026-02-17 → 2026-03-03 (14 days)
- Peak wind
- 138 kt · 71 m/s · H5
- Minimum pressure
- 920 hPa
- Archived forecasts
- 49
- Sources
- ECMWF · ECMWF ENS
Forecast track error (km)
| Source | 24 h | 48 h | 72 h | 120 h |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF | 52 (2) | 73 (1) | 184 (1) | — |
| ECMWF ENS | 53 (23) | 81 (20) | 108 (16) | 336 (9) |
Mean great-circle distance to the best track at each lead time, counted while the system was a tropical or subtropical cyclone; the number of cases is in brackets.
Best track
Six-hourly positions of the US best track (JTWC / NHC, one-minute winds); grades on the Saffir–Simpson scale.
| Time (UTC) | Position | Wind (kt) | Pressure (hPa) | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-20 00Z | 14.5°S 76.0°E | 35 | 1001 | TS |
| 2026-02-20 06Z | 14.7°S 75.8°E | 35 | 1001 | TS |
| 2026-02-20 12Z | 15.4°S 75.6°E | 45 | 999 | TS |
| 2026-02-20 18Z | 15.6°S 75.3°E | 35 | 1001 | TS |
| 2026-02-21 00Z | 16.0°S 74.6°E | 35 | 1001 | TS |
| 2026-02-21 06Z | 16.6°S 73.4°E | 35 | 1003 | TS |
| 2026-02-21 12Z | 16.9°S 73.1°E | 35 | 1001 | TS |
| 2026-02-21 18Z | 16.9°S 71.8°E | 45 | 998 | TS |
| 2026-02-22 00Z | 16.9°S 70.8°E | 45 | 996 | TS |
| 2026-02-22 06Z | 17.2°S 69.9°E | 45 | 996 | TS |
| 2026-02-22 12Z | 17.6°S 69.1°E | 51 | 991 | TS |
| 2026-02-22 18Z | 17.8°S 68.2°E | 54 | 989 | TS |
| 2026-02-23 00Z | 18.3°S 67.4°E | 64 | 984 | H1 |
| 2026-02-23 06Z | 19.0°S 66.5°E | 93 | 963 | H2 |
| 2026-02-23 12Z | 19.8°S 65.8°E | 109 | 948 | H3 |
| 2026-02-23 18Z | 20.7°S 65.1°E | 138 | 920 | H5 |
| 2026-02-24 00Z | 21.5°S 64.6°E | 128 | 930 | H4 |
| 2026-02-24 06Z | 22.5°S 64.3°E | 119 | 941 | H4 |
| 2026-02-24 12Z | 23.8°S 64.5°E | 109 | 949 | H3 |
| 2026-02-24 18Z | 24.9°S 64.9°E | 93 | 960 | H2 |
| 2026-02-25 00Z | 26.5°S 65.8°E | 80 | 971 | H1 |
| 2026-02-25 06Z | 27.8°S 66.3°E | 70 | 981 | H1 |
| 2026-02-25 12Z | 29.2°S 66.8°E | 60 | 986 | TS |
| 2026-02-25 18Z | 30.6°S 67.8°E | 64 | 984 | H1 |
| 2026-02-26 00Z | 31.7°S 68.6°E | 60 | 987 | TS |
| 2026-02-26 06Z | 31.8°S 69.2°E | 60 | 986 | TS |
| 2026-02-26 12Z | 31.9°S 69.5°E | 54 | 988 | TS |
| 2026-02-26 18Z | 31.9°S 69.4°E | 45 | 995 | TS |
| 2026-02-27 00Z | 32.3°S 69.0°E | 39 | 996 | TS |