2025 tropical cyclone season · North Atlantic
Hurricane Melissa Melissa · AL132025
Hurricane Melissa was tracked in the North Atlantic from 2025-10-21 to 2025-11-01 (11 days), peaking at 165 kt (H5) with a minimum pressure of 892 hPa. 304 archived forecasts from NHC, ECMWF, ECMWF ENS, GFS, GEFS, Google DeepMind are verified against its best track; at 48 hours the closest was Google DeepMind, 47 km off on average.
- ATCF ID
- AL132025
- Basin
- North Atlantic
- Tracked
- 2025-10-21 → 2025-11-01 (11 days)
- Peak wind
- 165 kt · 85 m/s · H5
- Minimum pressure
- 892 hPa
- Archived forecasts
- 304
- Sources
- NHC · ECMWF · ECMWF ENS · GFS · GEFS · Google DeepMind
Forecast track error (km)
| Source | 24 h | 48 h | 72 h | 120 h |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NHC | 53 (36) | 75 (32) | 116 (28) | 162 (20) |
| ECMWF | 58 (36) | 104 (32) | 150 (28) | 210 (10) |
| ECMWF ENS | 52 (37) | 84 (33) | 131 (29) | 216 (21) |
| GFS | 99 (37) | 176 (33) | 326 (29) | 839 (21) |
| GEFS | 53 (37) | 81 (33) | 163 (29) | 302 (21) |
| Google DeepMind | 30 (36) | 47 (32) | 71 (28) | 187 (20) |
Mean great-circle distance to the best track at each lead time, counted while the system was a tropical or subtropical cyclone; the number of cases is in brackets.
Best track
Six-hourly positions of the US best track (JTWC / NHC, one-minute winds); grades on the Saffir–Simpson scale.
| Time (UTC) | Position | Wind (kt) | Pressure (hPa) | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-21 06Z | 14.0°N 70.0°W | 40 | 1003 | TS |
| 2025-10-21 12Z | 14.0°N 71.4°W | 45 | 1003 | TS |
| 2025-10-21 18Z | 14.0°N 72.4°W | 45 | 1003 | TS |
| 2025-10-22 00Z | 14.1°N 73.3°W | 45 | 1003 | TS |
| 2025-10-22 06Z | 14.2°N 73.5°W | 45 | 1002 | TS |
| 2025-10-22 12Z | 14.3°N 73.7°W | 45 | 1002 | TS |
| 2025-10-22 18Z | 14.3°N 74.1°W | 45 | 1002 | TS |
| 2025-10-23 00Z | 14.3°N 74.5°W | 45 | 1002 | TS |
| 2025-10-23 06Z | 14.7°N 74.8°W | 40 | 1003 | TS |
| 2025-10-23 12Z | 15.2°N 75.0°W | 40 | 1003 | TS |
| 2025-10-23 18Z | 15.5°N 75.3°W | 40 | 1002 | TS |
| 2025-10-24 00Z | 15.7°N 75.5°W | 40 | 1002 | TS |
| 2025-10-24 06Z | 15.8°N 75.3°W | 40 | 1002 | TS |
| 2025-10-24 12Z | 15.9°N 75.1°W | 45 | 1000 | TS |
| 2025-10-24 18Z | 15.9°N 74.8°W | 50 | 997 | TS |
| 2025-10-25 00Z | 16.1°N 74.7°W | 55 | 993 | TS |
| 2025-10-25 06Z | 16.3°N 74.7°W | 60 | 986 | TS |
| 2025-10-25 12Z | 16.4°N 74.9°W | 60 | 984 | TS |
| 2025-10-25 18Z | 16.4°N 75.3°W | 75 | 976 | H1 |
| 2025-10-26 00Z | 16.4°N 75.7°W | 90 | 971 | H2 |
| 2025-10-26 06Z | 16.3°N 76.0°W | 105 | 958 | H3 |
| 2025-10-26 12Z | 16.3°N 76.4°W | 115 | 952 | H4 |
| 2025-10-26 18Z | 16.3°N 76.9°W | 120 | 944 | H4 |
| 2025-10-27 00Z | 16.3°N 77.3°W | 125 | 934 | H4 |
| 2025-10-27 06Z | 16.3°N 77.7°W | 135 | 923 | H4 |
| 2025-10-27 12Z | 16.3°N 78.0°W | 145 | 912 | H5 |
| 2025-10-27 18Z | 16.4°N 78.3°W | 155 | 906 | H5 |
| 2025-10-28 00Z | 16.5°N 78.6°W | 155 | 909 | H5 |
| 2025-10-28 06Z | 16.9°N 78.4°W | 155 | 900 | H5 |
| 2025-10-28 12Z | 17.5°N 78.1°W | 165 | 892 | H5 |
| 2025-10-28 18Z | 18.2°N 78.0°W | 145 | 910 | H5 |
| 2025-10-29 00Z | 18.8°N 77.1°W | 105 | 953 | H3 |
| 2025-10-29 06Z | 19.7°N 76.4°W | 105 | 952 | H3 |
| 2025-10-29 12Z | 20.9°N 75.8°W | 85 | 968 | H2 |
| 2025-10-29 18Z | 22.1°N 75.4°W | 80 | 972 | H1 |
| 2025-10-30 00Z | 23.5°N 74.8°W | 80 | 970 | H1 |
| 2025-10-30 06Z | 25.0°N 73.8°W | 85 | 968 | H2 |
| 2025-10-30 12Z | 26.7°N 72.7°W | 90 | 965 | H2 |
| 2025-10-30 18Z | 28.9°N 70.9°W | 85 | 967 | H2 |
| 2025-10-31 00Z | 31.3°N 68.7°W | 80 | 970 | H1 |
| 2025-10-31 06Z | 34.5°N 65.5°W | 75 | 972 | H1 |
| 2025-10-31 12Z | 37.7°N 62.1°W | 75 | 972 | H1 |
| 2025-10-31 18Z | 40.6°N 58.9°W | 70 | 972 | H1 |
| 2025-11-01 00Z | 43.7°N 56.0°W | 70 | 971 | H1 |
| 2025-11-01 06Z | 46.6°N 51.3°W | 65 | 968 | H1 |