2025 tropical cyclone season · Southern Hemisphere
Cyclone Alfred Alfred · SH182025
Cyclone Alfred was tracked in the Southern Hemisphere from 2025-02-21 to 2025-03-08 (16 days), peaking at 115 kt (H4) with a minimum pressure of 943 hPa. 243 archived forecasts from ECMWF, ECMWF ENS, GFS, GEFS are verified against its best track; at 48 hours the closest was ECMWF, 86 km off on average.
- ATCF ID
- SH182025
- Basin
- Southern Hemisphere
- Tracked
- 2025-02-21 → 2025-03-08 (16 days)
- Peak wind
- 115 kt · 59 m/s · H4
- Minimum pressure
- 943 hPa
- Archived forecasts
- 243
- Sources
- ECMWF · ECMWF ENS · GFS · GEFS
Forecast track error (km)
| Source | 24 h | 48 h | 72 h | 120 h |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF | 62 (53) | 86 (48) | 125 (45) | 220 (18) |
| ECMWF ENS | 60 (53) | 96 (49) | 141 (45) | 199 (37) |
| GFS | 78 (53) | 127 (49) | 194 (45) | 426 (37) |
| GEFS | 77 (53) | 135 (49) | 202 (45) | 374 (37) |
Mean great-circle distance to the best track at each lead time, counted while the system was a tropical or subtropical cyclone; the number of cases is in brackets.
Best track
Six-hourly positions of the US best track (JTWC / NHC, one-minute winds); grades on the Saffir–Simpson scale.
| Time (UTC) | Position | Wind (kt) | Pressure (hPa) | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-02-22 06Z | 15.4°S 149.7°E | 35 | 1000 | TS |
| 2025-02-22 12Z | 14.8°S 150.2°E | 39 | 996 | TS |
| 2025-02-22 18Z | 14.0°S 151.2°E | 39 | 998 | TS |
| 2025-02-23 00Z | 14.0°S 151.8°E | 51 | 990 | TS |
| 2025-02-23 06Z | 14.7°S 152.5°E | 51 | 994 | TS |
| 2025-02-23 12Z | 14.6°S 152.8°E | 54 | 994 | TS |
| 2025-02-23 18Z | 14.2°S 153.5°E | 54 | 992 | TS |
| 2025-02-24 00Z | 14.0°S 154.0°E | 60 | 986 | TS |
| 2025-02-24 06Z | 13.6°S 154.2°E | 60 | 986 | TS |
| 2025-02-24 12Z | 13.8°S 154.5°E | 64 | 985 | H1 |
| 2025-02-24 18Z | 14.4°S 154.7°E | 60 | 987 | TS |
| 2025-02-25 00Z | 14.4°S 154.5°E | 64 | 984 | H1 |
| 2025-02-25 06Z | 14.4°S 154.2°E | 74 | 975 | H1 |
| 2025-02-25 12Z | 14.3°S 155.1°E | 74 | 975 | H1 |
| 2025-02-25 18Z | 14.6°S 155.0°E | 74 | 975 | H1 |
| 2025-02-26 00Z | 15.0°S 155.1°E | 79 | 973 | H1 |
| 2025-02-26 06Z | 15.3°S 155.3°E | 84 | 970 | H2 |
| 2025-02-26 12Z | 15.5°S 155.4°E | 84 | 969 | H2 |
| 2025-02-26 18Z | 16.3°S 155.3°E | 89 | 966 | H2 |
| 2025-02-27 00Z | 16.7°S 155.4°E | 93 | 962 | H2 |
| 2025-02-27 06Z | 17.5°S 155.4°E | 109 | 949 | H3 |
| 2025-02-27 12Z | 17.8°S 155.7°E | 115 | 943 | H4 |
| 2025-02-27 18Z | 18.4°S 155.6°E | 93 | 952 | H2 |
| 2025-02-28 00Z | 19.1°S 155.5°E | 105 | 950 | H3 |
| 2025-02-28 06Z | 20.0°S 155.9°E | 105 | 950 | H3 |
| 2025-02-28 12Z | 20.4°S 155.7°E | 105 | 952 | H3 |
| 2025-02-28 18Z | 21.0°S 155.6°E | 105 | 952 | H3 |
| 2025-03-01 00Z | 21.7°S 155.6°E | 95 | 959 | H2 |
| 2025-03-01 06Z | 22.3°S 155.6°E | 84 | 966 | H2 |
| 2025-03-01 12Z | 22.7°S 155.4°E | 70 | 976 | H1 |
| 2025-03-01 18Z | 22.7°S 155.4°E | 60 | 979 | TS |
| 2025-03-02 00Z | 23.4°S 155.5°E | 54 | 984 | TS |
| 2025-03-02 06Z | 24.0°S 155.8°E | 51 | 989 | TS |
| 2025-03-02 12Z | 24.5°S 156.2°E | 51 | 988 | TS |
| 2025-03-02 18Z | 25.0°S 156.6°E | 54 | 983 | TS |
| 2025-03-03 00Z | 25.8°S 157.2°E | 51 | 986 | TS |
| 2025-03-03 06Z | 26.2°S 157.8°E | 45 | 987 | TS |
| 2025-03-03 12Z | 26.7°S 158.2°E | 51 | 986 | TS |
| 2025-03-03 18Z | 27.0°S 158.5°E | 54 | 983 | TS |
| 2025-03-04 00Z | 27.3°S 159.0°E | 54 | 983 | TS |
| 2025-03-04 06Z | 28.1°S 159.0°E | 54 | 983 | TS |
| 2025-03-04 12Z | 27.8°S 158.5°E | 54 | 981 | TS |
| 2025-03-04 18Z | 28.1°S 157.5°E | 54 | 980 | TS |
| 2025-03-05 00Z | 27.6°S 156.4°E | 54 | 980 | TS |
| 2025-03-05 06Z | 27.2°S 156.4°E | 54 | 978 | TS |
| 2025-03-05 12Z | 27.3°S 156.7°E | 54 | 978 | TS |
| 2025-03-05 18Z | 27.4°S 156.3°E | 51 | 983 | TS |
| 2025-03-06 00Z | 27.3°S 155.7°E | 51 | 986 | TS |
| 2025-03-06 06Z | 27.3°S 155.3°E | 51 | 985 | TS |
| 2025-03-06 12Z | 27.3°S 155.1°E | 51 | 985 | TS |
| 2025-03-06 18Z | 27.2°S 155.0°E | 45 | 985 | TS |
| 2025-03-07 00Z | 27.6°S 154.5°E | 45 | 986 | TS |
| 2025-03-07 06Z | 27.7°S 154.1°E | 45 | 984 | TS |
| 2025-03-07 12Z | 27.5°S 153.7°E | 45 | 985 | TS |
| 2025-03-07 18Z | 27.3°S 153.3°E | 35 | 993 | TS |
| 2025-03-08 00Z | 27.0°S 153.3°E | 35 | 1000 | TS |
| 2025-03-08 06Z | 27.0°S 153.3°E | 35 | 1001 | TS |