2024 tropical cyclone season · North Atlantic
Hurricane Rafael Rafael · AL182024
Hurricane Rafael was tracked in the North Atlantic from 2024-11-03 to 2024-11-10 (7 days), peaking at 105 kt (H3) with a minimum pressure of 954 hPa. 165 archived forecasts from NHC, ECMWF, ECMWF ENS, GFS, GEFS are verified against its best track; at 48 hours the closest was NHC, 44 km off on average.
- ATCF ID
- AL182024
- Basin
- North Atlantic
- Tracked
- 2024-11-03 → 2024-11-10 (7 days)
- Peak wind
- 105 kt · 54 m/s · H3
- Minimum pressure
- 954 hPa
- Archived forecasts
- 165
- Sources
- NHC · ECMWF · ECMWF ENS · GFS · GEFS
Forecast track error (km)
| Source | 24 h | 48 h | 72 h | 120 h |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NHC | 30 (20) | 44 (16) | 116 (12) | 281 (4) |
| ECMWF | 39 (20) | 66 (16) | 138 (12) | 173 (2) |
| ECMWF ENS | 38 (20) | 60 (16) | 98 (12) | 100 (4) |
| GFS | 40 (20) | 69 (16) | 139 (12) | 890 (4) |
| GEFS | 44 (20) | 68 (16) | 131 (12) | 740 (4) |
Mean great-circle distance to the best track at each lead time, counted while the system was a tropical or subtropical cyclone; the number of cases is in brackets.
Best track
Six-hourly positions of the US best track (JTWC / NHC, one-minute winds); grades on the Saffir–Simpson scale.
| Time (UTC) | Position | Wind (kt) | Pressure (hPa) | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-03 18Z | 12.7°N 77.0°W | 30 | 1004 | TD |
| 2024-11-04 00Z | 13.5°N 76.8°W | 30 | 1004 | TD |
| 2024-11-04 06Z | 14.2°N 76.7°W | 30 | 1004 | TD |
| 2024-11-04 12Z | 14.8°N 76.6°W | 30 | 1003 | TD |
| 2024-11-04 18Z | 15.1°N 76.4°W | 35 | 1001 | TS |
| 2024-11-05 00Z | 15.8°N 76.9°W | 40 | 999 | TS |
| 2024-11-05 06Z | 16.6°N 77.6°W | 45 | 994 | TS |
| 2024-11-05 12Z | 17.5°N 78.3°W | 50 | 993 | TS |
| 2024-11-05 18Z | 18.5°N 79.1°W | 60 | 990 | TS |
| 2024-11-06 00Z | 19.4°N 80.0°W | 70 | 985 | H1 |
| 2024-11-06 06Z | 20.1°N 80.9°W | 80 | 975 | H1 |
| 2024-11-06 12Z | 21.0°N 81.6°W | 90 | 964 | H2 |
| 2024-11-06 18Z | 22.0°N 82.3°W | 100 | 955 | H3 |
| 2024-11-07 00Z | 23.1°N 83.2°W | 95 | 968 | H2 |
| 2024-11-07 06Z | 23.8°N 84.1°W | 90 | 970 | H2 |
| 2024-11-07 12Z | 24.3°N 84.9°W | 90 | 969 | H2 |
| 2024-11-07 18Z | 24.6°N 85.7°W | 90 | 968 | H2 |
| 2024-11-08 00Z | 24.6°N 86.6°W | 90 | 966 | H2 |
| 2024-11-08 06Z | 24.4°N 87.6°W | 105 | 954 | H3 |
| 2024-11-08 12Z | 24.4°N 88.4°W | 95 | 962 | H2 |
| 2024-11-08 18Z | 24.6°N 89.1°W | 80 | 973 | H1 |
| 2024-11-09 00Z | 24.7°N 89.7°W | 65 | 986 | H1 |
| 2024-11-09 06Z | 24.8°N 90.5°W | 55 | 992 | TS |
| 2024-11-09 12Z | 25.0°N 91.2°W | 50 | 998 | TS |
| 2024-11-09 18Z | 25.3°N 91.5°W | 45 | 1000 | TS |
| 2024-11-10 00Z | 25.6°N 91.7°W | 40 | 1001 | TS |
| 2024-11-10 06Z | 25.9°N 91.9°W | 35 | 1003 | TS |
| 2024-11-10 12Z | 26.1°N 91.9°W | 35 | 1003 | TS |