2024 tropical cyclone season · Southern Hemisphere
Cyclone Nat Nat · SH102024
Cyclone Nat was tracked in the Southern Hemisphere from 2024-02-03 to 2024-02-09 (6 days), peaking at 55 kt (TS) with a minimum pressure of 989 hPa. 96 archived forecasts from ECMWF, ECMWF ENS, GFS, GEFS are verified against its best track; at 48 hours the closest was GEFS, 136 km off on average.
- ATCF ID
- SH102024
- Basin
- Southern Hemisphere
- Tracked
- 2024-02-03 → 2024-02-09 (6 days)
- Peak wind
- 55 kt · 28 m/s · TS
- Minimum pressure
- 989 hPa
- Archived forecasts
- 96
- Sources
- ECMWF · ECMWF ENS · GFS · GEFS
Forecast track error (km)
| Source | 24 h | 48 h | 72 h | 120 h |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF | 151 (11) | 231 (8) | 460 (4) | — |
| ECMWF ENS | 105 (12) | 209 (8) | 388 (4) | — |
| GFS | 107 (12) | 153 (9) | 183 (5) | — |
| GEFS | 91 (13) | 136 (9) | 126 (5) | — |
Mean great-circle distance to the best track at each lead time, counted while the system was a tropical or subtropical cyclone; the number of cases is in brackets.
Best track
Six-hourly positions of the US best track (JTWC / NHC, one-minute winds); grades on the Saffir–Simpson scale.
| Time (UTC) | Position | Wind (kt) | Pressure (hPa) | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-02-03 18Z | 16.2°S 172.3°W | 20 | 1005 | TD |
| 2024-02-04 00Z | 15.5°S 171.7°W | 20 | 1005 | TD |
| 2024-02-04 06Z | 15.0°S 170.9°W | 30 | 999 | TD |
| 2024-02-04 12Z | 14.7°S 170.0°W | 30 | 999 | TD |
| 2024-02-04 18Z | 14.4°S 168.8°W | 30 | 999 | TD |
| 2024-02-05 00Z | 14.3°S 167.6°W | 30 | 999 | TD |
| 2024-02-05 06Z | 14.4°S 166.5°W | 30 | 999 | TD |
| 2024-02-05 12Z | 14.6°S 165.5°W | 35 | 997 | TS |
| 2024-02-05 18Z | 15.0°S 163.1°W | 40 | 995 | TS |
| 2024-02-06 00Z | 15.5°S 160.6°W | 45 | 993 | TS |
| 2024-02-06 06Z | 16.1°S 158.5°W | 50 | 991 | TS |
| 2024-02-06 12Z | 16.9°S 156.8°W | 55 | 989 | TS |
| 2024-02-06 18Z | 17.4°S 155.5°W | 45 | 993 | TS |
| 2024-02-07 00Z | 18.2°S 154.0°W | 40 | 996 | TS |
| 2024-02-07 06Z | 18.8°S 152.9°W | 40 | 996 | TS |
| 2024-02-07 12Z | 19.2°S 151.9°W | 40 | 996 | TS |
| 2024-02-07 18Z | 19.3°S 151.5°W | 45 | 995 | TS |
| 2024-02-08 00Z | 19.3°S 151.1°W | 40 | 999 | TS |
| 2024-02-08 06Z | 19.3°S 150.0°W | 35 | 1000 | TS |
| 2024-02-08 12Z | 19.3°S 148.6°W | 35 | 1000 | TS |
| 2024-02-08 18Z | 19.4°S 147.0°W | 45 | 996 | TS |
| 2024-02-09 00Z | 19.6°S 145.2°W | 50 | 994 | TS |
| 2024-02-09 06Z | 19.9°S 143.3°W | 45 | 997 | TS |
| 2024-02-09 12Z | 21.2°S 140.6°W | 45 | 997 | TS |