2024 tropical cyclone season · North Atlantic
Hurricane Ernesto Ernesto · AL052024
Hurricane Ernesto was tracked in the North Atlantic from 2024-08-11 to 2024-08-20 (9 days), peaking at 85 kt (H2) with a minimum pressure of 967 hPa. 205 archived forecasts from NHC, ECMWF, ECMWF ENS, GFS, GEFS are verified against its best track; at 48 hours the closest was GFS, 64 km off on average.
- ATCF ID
- AL052024
- Basin
- North Atlantic
- Tracked
- 2024-08-11 → 2024-08-20 (9 days)
- Peak wind
- 85 kt · 44 m/s · H2
- Minimum pressure
- 967 hPa
- Archived forecasts
- 205
- Sources
- NHC · ECMWF · ECMWF ENS · GFS · GEFS
Forecast track error (km)
| Source | 24 h | 48 h | 72 h | 120 h |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NHC | 54 (28) | 80 (24) | 109 (20) | 114 (12) |
| ECMWF | 52 (27) | 87 (23) | 125 (19) | 236 (6) |
| ECMWF ENS | 48 (28) | 79 (24) | 132 (20) | 188 (12) |
| GFS | 43 (28) | 64 (24) | 103 (20) | 217 (12) |
| GEFS | 46 (28) | 74 (24) | 115 (20) | 206 (12) |
Mean great-circle distance to the best track at each lead time, counted while the system was a tropical or subtropical cyclone; the number of cases is in brackets.
Best track
Six-hourly positions of the US best track (JTWC / NHC, one-minute winds); grades on the Saffir–Simpson scale.
| Time (UTC) | Position | Wind (kt) | Pressure (hPa) | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-08-11 18Z | 14.4°N 47.2°W | 25 | 1010 | TD |
| 2024-08-12 00Z | 14.8°N 49.8°W | 25 | 1009 | TD |
| 2024-08-12 06Z | 15.3°N 52.2°W | 25 | 1009 | TD |
| 2024-08-12 12Z | 15.6°N 54.6°W | 30 | 1008 | TD |
| 2024-08-12 18Z | 15.9°N 56.6°W | 35 | 1007 | TS |
| 2024-08-13 00Z | 16.0°N 58.6°W | 35 | 1007 | TS |
| 2024-08-13 06Z | 16.1°N 60.5°W | 35 | 1007 | TS |
| 2024-08-13 12Z | 16.6°N 62.0°W | 40 | 1005 | TS |
| 2024-08-13 18Z | 17.6°N 63.5°W | 50 | 1001 | TS |
| 2024-08-14 00Z | 18.4°N 64.9°W | 55 | 998 | TS |
| 2024-08-14 06Z | 19.0°N 66.0°W | 60 | 996 | TS |
| 2024-08-14 12Z | 19.9°N 67.2°W | 65 | 991 | H1 |
| 2024-08-14 18Z | 21.1°N 68.0°W | 65 | 989 | H1 |
| 2024-08-15 00Z | 22.3°N 68.7°W | 70 | 981 | H1 |
| 2024-08-15 06Z | 23.4°N 69.2°W | 75 | 979 | H1 |
| 2024-08-15 12Z | 24.5°N 69.3°W | 75 | 975 | H1 |
| 2024-08-15 18Z | 25.6°N 69.0°W | 80 | 975 | H1 |
| 2024-08-16 00Z | 26.6°N 68.3°W | 85 | 969 | H2 |
| 2024-08-16 06Z | 27.7°N 67.5°W | 85 | 968 | H2 |
| 2024-08-16 12Z | 28.9°N 66.8°W | 85 | 967 | H2 |
| 2024-08-16 18Z | 30.0°N 66.1°W | 85 | 969 | H2 |
| 2024-08-17 00Z | 31.0°N 65.4°W | 80 | 969 | H1 |
| 2024-08-17 06Z | 31.9°N 65.0°W | 75 | 972 | H1 |
| 2024-08-17 12Z | 32.6°N 64.6°W | 70 | 974 | H1 |
| 2024-08-17 18Z | 33.0°N 64.2°W | 65 | 977 | H1 |
| 2024-08-18 00Z | 33.5°N 63.6°W | 60 | 981 | TS |
| 2024-08-18 06Z | 34.3°N 63.2°W | 60 | 982 | TS |
| 2024-08-18 12Z | 35.4°N 63.0°W | 60 | 980 | TS |
| 2024-08-18 18Z | 36.4°N 62.6°W | 65 | 977 | H1 |
| 2024-08-19 00Z | 37.7°N 62.0°W | 70 | 975 | H1 |
| 2024-08-19 06Z | 39.2°N 61.2°W | 75 | 972 | H1 |
| 2024-08-19 12Z | 40.9°N 59.8°W | 85 | 967 | H2 |
| 2024-08-19 18Z | 42.8°N 58.1°W | 80 | 970 | H1 |
| 2024-08-20 00Z | 44.8°N 55.0°W | 75 | 972 | H1 |
| 2024-08-20 06Z | 46.6°N 51.4°W | 65 | 976 | H1 |
| 2024-08-20 12Z | 48.3°N 47.2°W | 60 | 987 | TS |
| 2024-08-20 18Z | 49.7°N 41.9°W | 55 | 991 | TS |