2024 tropical cyclone season · Southern Hemisphere
Cyclone Belal Belal · SH052024
Cyclone Belal was tracked in the Southern Hemisphere from 2024-01-11 to 2024-01-23 (12 days), peaking at 90 kt (H2) with a minimum pressure of 969 hPa. 89 archived forecasts from ECMWF, ECMWF ENS, GFS, GEFS are verified against its best track; at 48 hours the closest was GFS, 118 km off on average.
- ATCF ID
- SH052024
- Basin
- Southern Hemisphere
- Tracked
- 2024-01-11 → 2024-01-23 (12 days)
- Peak wind
- 90 kt · 46 m/s · H2
- Minimum pressure
- 969 hPa
- Archived forecasts
- 89
- Sources
- ECMWF · ECMWF ENS · GFS · GEFS
Forecast track error (km)
| Source | 24 h | 48 h | 72 h | 120 h |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GFS | 55 (29) | 118 (25) | 244 (21) | 352 (13) |
| GEFS | 57 (29) | 140 (25) | 282 (21) | 429 (13) |
Mean great-circle distance to the best track at each lead time, counted while the system was a tropical or subtropical cyclone; the number of cases is in brackets.
Best track
Six-hourly positions of the US best track (JTWC / NHC, one-minute winds); grades on the Saffir–Simpson scale.
| Time (UTC) | Position | Wind (kt) | Pressure (hPa) | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-01-11 18Z | 13.0°S 58.5°E | 20 | 1007 | TD |
| 2024-01-12 00Z | 13.0°S 57.7°E | 25 | 1004 | TD |
| 2024-01-12 06Z | 13.0°S 57.0°E | 25 | 1000 | TD |
| 2024-01-12 12Z | 13.4°S 56.6°E | 35 | 1001 | TS |
| 2024-01-12 18Z | 13.7°S 56.4°E | 35 | 1004 | TS |
| 2024-01-13 00Z | 14.4°S 55.8°E | 45 | 998 | TS |
| 2024-01-13 06Z | 15.4°S 55.0°E | 50 | 997 | TS |
| 2024-01-13 12Z | 16.5°S 54.1°E | 55 | 993 | TS |
| 2024-01-13 18Z | 17.5°S 53.7°E | 65 | 989 | H1 |
| 2024-01-14 00Z | 18.3°S 53.5°E | 75 | 980 | H1 |
| 2024-01-14 06Z | 19.2°S 53.4°E | 80 | 976 | H1 |
| 2024-01-14 12Z | 19.7°S 53.4°E | 85 | 973 | H2 |
| 2024-01-14 18Z | 20.1°S 53.8°E | 90 | 969 | H2 |
| 2024-01-15 00Z | 20.5°S 54.5°E | 85 | 970 | H2 |
| 2024-01-15 06Z | 20.8°S 55.5°E | 80 | 973 | H1 |
| 2024-01-15 12Z | 21.2°S 56.3°E | 75 | 975 | H1 |
| 2024-01-15 18Z | 21.5°S 56.9°E | 70 | 978 | H1 |
| 2024-01-16 00Z | 22.1°S 57.9°E | 65 | 981 | H1 |
| 2024-01-16 06Z | 22.9°S 59.1°E | 60 | 983 | TS |
| 2024-01-16 12Z | 23.1°S 59.9°E | 55 | 985 | TS |
| 2024-01-16 18Z | 23.4°S 61.2°E | 60 | 981 | TS |
| 2024-01-17 00Z | 23.7°S 62.2°E | 55 | 986 | TS |
| 2024-01-17 06Z | 23.9°S 63.0°E | 50 | 989 | TS |
| 2024-01-17 12Z | 24.1°S 63.8°E | 50 | 989 | TS |
| 2024-01-17 18Z | 24.1°S 64.7°E | 50 | 989 | TS |
| 2024-01-18 00Z | 23.9°S 65.0°E | 45 | 991 | TS |
| 2024-01-18 06Z | 23.7°S 65.7°E | 50 | 990 | TS |
| 2024-01-18 12Z | 23.9°S 65.7°E | 50 | 990 | TS |
| 2024-01-18 18Z | 23.7°S 65.2°E | 50 | 989 | TS |
| 2024-01-19 00Z | 23.4°S 64.5°E | 35 | 989 | TS |
| 2024-01-19 06Z | 23.2°S 64.0°E | 30 | 987 | TD |
| 2024-01-19 12Z | 23.6°S 63.5°E | 25 | 998 | TD |
| 2024-01-19 18Z | 23.9°S 63.1°E | 25 | 988 | TD |
| 2024-01-20 00Z | 24.4°S 62.5°E | 25 | 986 | TD |
| 2024-01-20 06Z | 24.8°S 61.9°E | 25 | 985 | TD |
| 2024-01-20 12Z | 25.2°S 61.4°E | 25 | 985 | TD |
| 2024-01-20 18Z | 25.5°S 60.6°E | 20 | 988 | TD |