2024 tropical cyclone season · Southern Hemisphere
Cyclone Alvaro Alvaro · SH042024
Cyclone Alvaro was tracked in the Southern Hemisphere from 2023-12-29 to 2024-01-06 (8 days), peaking at 65 kt (H1) with a minimum pressure of 986 hPa. 92 archived forecasts from ECMWF, ECMWF ENS, GFS, GEFS are verified against its best track; at 48 hours the closest was GFS, 186 km off on average.
- ATCF ID
- SH042024
- Basin
- Southern Hemisphere
- Tracked
- 2023-12-29 → 2024-01-06 (8 days)
- Peak wind
- 65 kt · 33 m/s · H1
- Minimum pressure
- 986 hPa
- Archived forecasts
- 92
- Sources
- ECMWF · ECMWF ENS · GFS · GEFS
Forecast track error (km)
| Source | 24 h | 48 h | 72 h | 120 h |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF ENS | 53 (4) | 261 (4) | 426 (4) | — |
| GFS | 80 (13) | 186 (9) | 473 (5) | — |
| GEFS | 64 (13) | 226 (9) | 629 (5) | — |
Mean great-circle distance to the best track at each lead time, counted while the system was a tropical or subtropical cyclone; the number of cases is in brackets.
Best track
Six-hourly positions of the US best track (JTWC / NHC, one-minute winds); grades on the Saffir–Simpson scale.
| Time (UTC) | Position | Wind (kt) | Pressure (hPa) | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-12-30 06Z | 19.4°S 35.8°E | 15 | 1010 | TD |
| 2023-12-30 12Z | 19.7°S 36.6°E | 20 | 1007 | TD |
| 2023-12-30 18Z | 19.9°S 37.4°E | 20 | 1006 | TD |
| 2023-12-31 00Z | 20.0°S 37.9°E | 30 | 1004 | TD |
| 2023-12-31 06Z | 20.2°S 38.5°E | 35 | 1002 | TS |
| 2023-12-31 12Z | 20.5°S 39.2°E | 40 | 998 | TS |
| 2023-12-31 18Z | 20.7°S 39.9°E | 45 | 997 | TS |
| 2024-01-01 00Z | 21.0°S 40.7°E | 50 | 994 | TS |
| 2024-01-01 06Z | 21.4°S 41.8°E | 60 | 989 | TS |
| 2024-01-01 12Z | 21.5°S 42.7°E | 65 | 986 | H1 |
| 2024-01-01 18Z | 21.4°S 43.9°E | 60 | 989 | TS |
| 2024-01-02 00Z | 21.5°S 45.0°E | 45 | 997 | TS |
| 2024-01-02 06Z | 21.8°S 46.4°E | 35 | 1004 | TS |
| 2024-01-02 12Z | 21.9°S 47.5°E | 25 | 1006 | TD |
| 2024-01-02 18Z | 22.1°S 48.8°E | 35 | 1003 | TS |
| 2024-01-03 00Z | 22.7°S 50.0°E | 45 | 996 | TS |
| 2024-01-03 06Z | 23.3°S 50.8°E | 45 | 996 | TS |
| 2024-01-03 12Z | 24.2°S 51.7°E | 45 | 993 | TS |
| 2024-01-03 18Z | 25.1°S 52.7°E | 45 | 995 | TS |
| 2024-01-04 00Z | 26.2°S 54.0°E | 45 | 994 | TS |
| 2024-01-04 06Z | 28.1°S 55.7°E | 45 | 994 | TS |
| 2024-01-04 12Z | 29.1°S 57.5°E | 40 | 997 | TS |
| 2024-01-04 18Z | 29.8°S 58.9°E | 40 | 1001 | TS |