2023 tropical cyclone season · Southern Hemisphere
Cyclone Herman Herman · SH172023
Cyclone Herman was tracked in the Southern Hemisphere from 2023-03-27 to 2023-04-04 (8 days), peaking at 130 kt (H4) with a minimum pressure of 930 hPa. 70 archived forecasts from ECMWF, ECMWF ENS, GFS, GEFS are verified against its best track; at 48 hours the closest was ECMWF, 110 km off on average.
- ATCF ID
- SH172023
- Basin
- Southern Hemisphere
- Tracked
- 2023-03-27 → 2023-04-04 (8 days)
- Peak wind
- 130 kt · 67 m/s · H4
- Minimum pressure
- 930 hPa
- Archived forecasts
- 70
- Sources
- ECMWF · ECMWF ENS · GFS · GEFS
Forecast track error (km)
| Source | 24 h | 48 h | 72 h | 120 h |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF | 38 (14) | 110 (11) | 213 (6) | — |
| ECMWF ENS | 56 (14) | 141 (11) | 219 (7) | — |
| GFS | 65 (15) | 175 (11) | 227 (7) | — |
| GEFS | 50 (15) | 127 (11) | 218 (7) | — |
Mean great-circle distance to the best track at each lead time, counted while the system was a tropical or subtropical cyclone; the number of cases is in brackets.
Best track
Six-hourly positions of the US best track (JTWC / NHC, one-minute winds); grades on the Saffir–Simpson scale.
| Time (UTC) | Position | Wind (kt) | Pressure (hPa) | Grade |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-03-27 12Z | 10.4°S 96.0°E | 20 | 1007 | TD |
| 2023-03-27 18Z | 11.0°S 96.8°E | 20 | 1007 | TD |
| 2023-03-28 00Z | 11.5°S 97.5°E | 25 | 998 | TD |
| 2023-03-28 06Z | 11.9°S 97.9°E | 25 | 1006 | TD |
| 2023-03-28 12Z | 12.3°S 98.2°E | 25 | 998 | TD |
| 2023-03-28 18Z | 12.7°S 99.1°E | 30 | 1004 | TD |
| 2023-03-29 00Z | 13.0°S 99.9°E | 40 | 998 | TS |
| 2023-03-29 06Z | 13.8°S 101.6°E | 40 | 1001 | TS |
| 2023-03-29 12Z | 14.1°S 102.3°E | 45 | 994 | TS |
| 2023-03-29 18Z | 14.3°S 103.1°E | 55 | 992 | TS |
| 2023-03-30 00Z | 14.8°S 103.9°E | 50 | 994 | TS |
| 2023-03-30 06Z | 15.3°S 104.7°E | 70 | 981 | H1 |
| 2023-03-30 12Z | 15.8°S 105.3°E | 90 | 968 | H2 |
| 2023-03-30 18Z | 16.3°S 105.8°E | 110 | 952 | H3 |
| 2023-03-31 00Z | 16.7°S 106.2°E | 115 | 947 | H4 |
| 2023-03-31 06Z | 17.3°S 106.5°E | 125 | 935 | H4 |
| 2023-03-31 12Z | 17.8°S 106.7°E | 130 | 930 | H4 |
| 2023-03-31 18Z | 18.2°S 106.9°E | 120 | 941 | H4 |
| 2023-04-01 00Z | 18.8°S 106.9°E | 115 | 945 | H4 |
| 2023-04-01 06Z | 19.0°S 107.1°E | 95 | 961 | H2 |
| 2023-04-01 12Z | 19.4°S 107.2°E | 80 | 972 | H1 |
| 2023-04-01 18Z | 19.6°S 106.7°E | 60 | 986 | TS |
| 2023-04-02 00Z | 19.7°S 106.3°E | 40 | 998 | TS |
| 2023-04-02 06Z | 19.8°S 105.7°E | 35 | 999 | TS |
| 2023-04-02 12Z | 19.8°S 105.3°E | 30 | 1002 | TD |
| 2023-04-02 18Z | 19.9°S 104.8°E | 25 | 1003 | TD |
| 2023-04-03 00Z | 20.0°S 104.4°E | 20 | 1004 | TD |
| 2023-04-03 06Z | 19.8°S 104.0°E | 25 | 1002 | TD |
| 2023-04-03 12Z | 19.5°S 103.8°E | 20 | 1004 | TD |